Boris Johnson and CCHQ - a match made in hell? Politics Decoded by Garbo

From the desk of garbo ·August 19, 2008 at 10:53 am · Filed under All WW, Politics Decoded, Westminster Watch

Nice bit of spin

According to Iain Dale this morning, Boris Johnson’s First Deputy Mayor is about to resign by, we are told, mutual consent. This move will also see Johnson “promote” himself to the chair of TfL. Of course, this is the third senior figure to have left the Johnson administration under, let’s say, unclear circumstances. Dale is reporting it as a Johnson stamping his authority on his Mayoralty – a true sign that he is not being ruled from CCHQ. A nice bit of spin by Mr Dale – but perhaps not the whole story.

No ideal, but Johnson deserves time

Firstly, no government at any level wants to lose three senior figures within its first six months. That has happened to Boris. In reality, I do not think it has caused him too much damage though. To suggest that this is somehow all part of the Boris plan to show the people of London he is not under the control of team Cameron is laughable.

On the other hand I do think that Ian Dale is right when he says it is better take swift action rather than let scandals and poor appointments fester in City Hall – that would be a mistake with serious consequences. So, on the one hand you have to question Johnson’s judgment by making these appointments in the first place; but on the other hand I think he does deserve credit for acting swiftly and decisively. After all, he is still a novice in this job and deserves some time to bed in.

Do not politicise a non-political position

More worryingly is Iain Dale’s suggestion that Peter Hendy should be replaced. The Tories do see him as a Livingstonian character who is far too Labour for his own good. I think that is unfair. Hendy is a transport man through and through. He has come from humble backgrounds as a bus worker all the through to leading the largest transport authority in the world. The man knows his onions and is also well respected in the organisation.

While I might be reading in between the lines here, I suspect that Dale would rather see a political figure put in as London’s transport commissioner… Steve Norris perhaps?

While Norris is all about London, he is a failed London Mayoral candidate and a politician. He is not a transport professional. It would be a mistake to politicise the role of TfL Commissioner – a role that Hendy has carried out with aplomb and dignity. Why would Londoners want a man who would inevitably get caught up in party politics? After all, it seems they don’t want Johnson getting caught up with CCHQ; surely putting Norris in there would only increase the risk of this happening. London needs a transport guru running its transport system, not another appointed politician who failed to gain position through the ballot box.

One small word that could be one big problem

But I fear the biggest challenge has not yet reared its head for Boris Johnson and the Tories. It is the three letter word no Tory dares utter at the moment: Tax.

London is just about to shell out for some seriously big projects: London 2012 and Crossrail are both multi-billion pound projects that still have question marks over their costs and funding. The collapse of Metronet has also left a large hole in the governments and TfL’s coffers. We are talking billions upon billions upon billions of pounds for these three areas alone. The credit crunch and rising cost of materials is only making this figure rise even further. Someone has to pay.

The Tories the party of higher taxes?

But how is this going to happen? Well the only way it can happen, the tax payer will pay. In particular, the London tax payer. That will mean almost certainly Boris is going to have to introduce a tax hike for Londoners. The Tories – the party of tax? That does not sound good. The problems evolve even more when you think about when Johnson can do this. He doesn’t want to wait until he comes up for re-election to hike the council tax. He will want to do it sooner rather than later so that people will be more forgiving when it comes to re-election and memories soften.

Tax hikes near a general election?!

That leaves it to tax hikes for Londoners in the near future –at a point not too far from a general election. No wonder the Tories and Iain Dale want not to paint Boris as being a a puppet for the Tories. They do not want to be judged on what Boris does because Boris will be forced to raise taxation – and the Tories do not want to be known as the party that raises taxes just before a general election. It will be all too easy cannon fodder for the Labour party.

Ironically, the biggest problem may not be Boris being associated with CCHQ, but CCHQ being associated with Boris.

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Labour needs to start governing and there is only one way to do that: Politics Decoded with Garbo

From the desk of garbo ·August 12, 2008 at 12:14 pm · Filed under All WW, Politics Decoded, Westminster Watch

For the good of the country, something must give

It has all gone a bit quiet on the domestic political front. The focus of the media is on Beijing and Georgia, while the focus of most of our MPs will be looking out to sea on their holidays.

But one story remains. Gordon Brown’s leadership. Nick Raynsford is the latest to stir the cauldron. This is now the political narrative that will be with GB until something happens – which is why something needs to happen. This speculation will not die and will hound the government until either someone makes a direct challenge to Gordon Brown or Gordon Brown has a “put up or shut up” moment similar to Major when he resigned as Tory leader in 1995. Because until this happens the electorate are being denied serious politics and policy – all at a time when we need our politicians to be on the ball more than ever.

How bad are things for the government?

In his New Statesman article, Raynsford asks how much trouble Labour are in what can be done about it.

First off – I agree with Nick. Labour are in a deep hole. Crushing defeats at by-elections are not uncommon for mid-term governments. But the sort of swings we have seen in Glasgow East and in Crewe and Nantwich suggest that this is more than mid-term blues. This is serious. But is it 1990 serious, when the Tories survived by a change of leader or is 1995 serious when there really was no saving the Tories?

Once again, I agree with Nick on this. I just do not sense that the electorate has bought into the Tories yet like they had with Tony Blair by 1997. I still do not think that a hung parliament with a Labour simple majority is out of the question either. It is improbable, yes. But impossible? No. If the polls can narrow for Labour back in to single figures they can still form the next government. But how to narrow those figures?

GB must go

I do not see it happening with Gordon Brown as PM. The narrative is set with him – speculation over his leadership will not go away. And while the speculation follows him, he cannot govern the country. Brown in charge is damaging for the Labour party and it is damaging for the country. We cannot discuss serious policy anymore. Look at the latest policy issues: tax relief on fuel bills and a freeze on stamp duty. These should be policies that are cheered by the media and electorate, but instead they are actually causing the government and the markets damage. Things we can ill afford with the credit crunch biting.

Get your own house in order first

I do disagree with Raynsford belief that the government should focus on the Tories and their weaknesses. This is a tactic that failed Ken Livingstone and has so far failed Gordon Brown. Attacking the opposition for the sake of it while not backing it up with serious and strong agendas of your own is a waste of time and disliked by the electorate. No one has bought the “Cameron is a used car salesman line” or the “Tories stand for nothing line”. Because the problem is no one knows what Brown stands for anymore and he can’t sell anything to the electorate at all.

Do not confuse activity with outcomes

However, I do agree with Raynsford in one area:

“One of the greatest mistakes in government is to confuse activity with outcomes. Just because ministers feel busy devising 101 new ways of tackling a problem does not guarantee the problem gets solved.”

Gesture politics is what New Labour has been reduced to and it is why the Tories have not yet been bought in to. The government does need to get serious and it needs to show its intention. Not through meaningless one off tax breaks or playground snide attacks on the opposition. It needs to stop government being about soap operas and speculation (which we all are sucked in to, granted). It needs to focus on a tight and small but far reaching set policies and a clear vision.

Time is fast running out for Labour. Labour needs to change its leader and start governing– not for the good of the party, but for the good of the country.

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If Gordon goes, then Labour must call a general election: Politics Decoded by Garbo

From the desk of garbo ·August 5, 2008 at 11:17 am · Filed under All WW, Politics Decoded, Westminster Watch

New leader means General Election

I never subscribed to the idea that Gordon Brown had an obligation to call an election when he became PM in 2006. In this country we vote for an MP and their party’s manifesto – not a Prime Minister. But if Labour were to get rid of Gordon Brown before a general election I think the government would have little option but to go to the country.

It is all very much hypothetical still, but with David Miliband’s not so subtle posturing and positioning as a pretender to the Labour crown, the possibility of the United Kingdom getting their third PM is less than 18 months is very real. The problem for me would be that the change would be so radical and far reaching from a Labour manifesto set out by not the previous PM, but the one before that, that it would not be morally acceptable for the government to continue without a fresh mandate.

The fact that there will have been three PMs in the lifetime of parliament alone suggests that something is desperately wrong. There is obviously no hard and fast rule about this, in theory the government has every constitutional right to serve its full five years, but not only do I personally think that it should not but I also do not think the electorate will allow it to.

Prediction time

You have to be a fool to make solid predictions in politics, but where’s the fun and what’s the point if you don’t? So here goes anyway:

A leadership challenge this year

Gordon Brown will face a leadership challenge before the new parliament sits on December 3^rd. It may well come at conference, but there is no reason why it cannot wait until parliament returns for the spill over session in October. Then the party goes into the long, drawn out process of electing a leader. Right now you have to fancy Miliband to take the crown but as the runners and riders become more apparent I think the bookies will tighten their odds.

An election in 2009

At the very best the government will not get a new leader until the end of the year I don’t think. But whoever does come in to power cannot make the mistake Gordon Brown made – they must to be very clear about when they intend to go to the polls. In which case they have two choices – no election until 2010 or right then and there. In my mind there is only one choice – then and there.

Of course, Prime Minister Miliband (or whoever it may be) will need a short while to bed in but they will also want to take advantage of the “Mili-bounce” or whatever it is we will be calling the honeymoon period. The electorate and media will give the government a maximum of six months I suspect, as long as they are open about their intentions.

May or June 2009 – and even the outside chance of a Labour win!!

All this means, and I am almost certainly setting myself up for an almighty fall here, that we will be heading in to a general election in May or June next year.

I also feel that while Labour’s chances of an election win are slim whatever route they take, that a new leader and a spring election are their best chance for returning to government. Remember, if they can get the polls down to single figures before an election – something a “Mili-bounce” could do – then they are not only in with a chance but incredibly could be favourites to win… though don’t hold your breath for that one!

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What should Labour do next? Politics Decoded with Garbo

From the desk of garbo ·July 29, 2008 at 10:28 am · Filed under All WW, Politics Decoded, Westminster Watch

What next?

The cat is out the bag. Glasgow East was the tipping for Labour and no longer can they pretend nothing is wrong. Gordon Brown is under fire from all quarters, including his cabinet behind the scenes. But what should they be plotting to actually do? After all, while it might be the majority of the country who want Labour out, it is not in the interests of the cabinet or Labour backbenchers to take a beating at the polls. So, what should Labour do next?

Step down Mr Brown

The most popular choice for the electorate would be for Brown to step down and Labour has a proper leadership contest, unlike the coronation of 2007. But even still, would the country allow Labour to have two so called “un-elected” Prime Ministers in a single term? On the one hand, they would not have a choice of course; but then the problem if an election wasn’t held immediately would be that the electorate would hold even more resentment against the government and the Tories would have easy cannon fodder.

Defeat is on the cards

So, Labour elects a new leader and PM and they go straight to the polls. Does anyone think that that would save this government from a crushing defeat to the Tories? I suspect it might soften the blow, but the damage is so bad at the moment that stealing a victory from the jaws of defeat just seems implausible. There would have to be such a massive change in the political narrative that a gamble would have to be taken on the new leader.

This takes out Jack Straw and Alan Johnson. While either would have been a better choice for leader in 2007 in my opinion, putting one of the old guard in place would simply not be dramatic enough to turn the tide. I even think Miliband would be seen as too Blairite to be able to really make a difference in such a small time period. This leaves two choices: Harriet Harman and James Purnell.

Real change

Harriet Harman would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons. All of a sudden we would have a female PM out of nowhere. It would throw the Tories line of attack right out and put Labour back on the front foot. It would also change the overall political narrative – in short it would be a novelty. The problem is, Harmen is not PM material and the gamble would be huge. Yes it would change things, but sooner or later she would be found out. Her two performances at PMQs this year really sum it: she went in to the first with low expectations from the spectators and did a good job. But Hague found her out on her second outing and the mask slipped and pretty much fell off.

Purnell would also be a real break from the past. He a very likeable and intelligent minister and has charisma to go with it. His main problem is his lack of experience. Would he also want to take the step now to lead a party to what looks like a defeat and ruin his future prospects as a successful Labour leader? Well, chances are few and far between at this level and I think he would throw his hat in the ring if a challenge was a real prospect. Again, a gamble for Labour to take Purnell on but when the options are certain defeat or a small chance of victory, the gamble doesn’t seem so big after all.

The third way? Go down with a fight at least!

The third way is to steady the ship with a Jack Straw. Prepare for defeat, but salvage some pride. This is the tactic that hopes to avoid a decade or more in the wilderness as happened to the Tories in 1997. This is probably the safest option – it appeases the voters by getting rid of Brown and holding an election and saves a few Labour MPs their salaries in the process. But I would say to this – what is the point? I believe the Labour party should do whatever it takes to ensure victory and if that means taking a gamble on Purnell then so be it. At least you have gone down fighting.

Oh – and stick with Brown

Of course, the stick with Brown option is also on the table don’t forget! Ride it out for two years and hope something, anything, happens to reverse the fortunes. Things are not as bad as they were for the Tories in the 1990s I do not think but then again, is that a benchmark Labour want to aspire to? I think that sticking with Brown, while it will ensure two more years of Labour rule that any other option does not by a long shot, is also accepting defeat. The tipping point has been reached with Brown – he cannot win in a general election. The political narrative has been chosen for Brown – he is a loser.

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Summer Loving: Politics Decoded with Garbo

From the desk of garbo ·July 22, 2008 at 12:50 pm · Filed under All WW, Politics Decoded, Westminster Watch

And relax…

Finally summer is upon us and that can only mean one thing – our MPs are off on their holidays. Gordon is off to Southwold in Suffolk while Alastair Darling is off to the Outer Hebrides – I know! What is wrong with these two? At least Dominic Grieve isn’t trying to be all humble and false – he is off to the Caribbean… and then to France. And good on him.

So two months or relaxation and getaways. Perhaps. Or perhaps not for these chaps…

Mr Brown

Gordon Brown – everyone says that the best thing he can do is go on a proper holiday… some even suggest that he should not come back. Going to Suffolk for your break is just about as close to the coast you can get from Westminster. I am not surprised though – when the King is away that is when the plotting for the crown is most frenetic. Brown is right to be paranoid and would do well to not stray too far. The only problem is he really does need to get away from it if he is going to come back in the autumn full of vigour. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

Mr Miliband

David Miliband – he now has two months to decide whether he will push for a shot at the leadership. There is no point in any challenge after this year as we will be too far down the line towards the general election. If he is going for it this year, then party conference seems to be the best time to do it. But is there any point at all?

It has been widely assumed that Miliband is the best answer to the leadership problem. But I am not so sure. History has shown that the favourite rarely wins a leadership election – and even less common is it the protagonist that wins it. By putting his head up first Miliband could be the fall guy for someone else. It is also a big gamble for him – if he is leader before a general election is there time to reverse the fortunes of the Labour party? Why take over a sinking ship? Then again, will he ever get another shot at being Labour leader or PM quite like this ever again?

I suspect the gamble is just too great for it to be sensible for Miliband to move. It only makes sense for him to stand if Brown falls on his sword… but is a man as stubborn as Brown likely to do that?

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A Talk with Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat Leader

From the desk of admin ·July 20, 2008 at 9:00 am · Filed under All WW, LibDem, Media, Parliaments, Politics, Video

The Catch21 team has a casual chat with Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, on a range of topics from the current economic crisis to faith schools.

We are still experimenting with settings for posting videos, so the quality of this one is lower than will be usual.

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How do the public access reports “placed in the House of Commons Library”?

From the desk of admin ·July 18, 2008 at 3:50 pm · Filed under All WW, Internet / Technical, Parliaments, Politics

A further update to my previous posting .

[Post updated 16.15: Reply received to an email asking about this from the House of Commons Information Office. Details are at the bottom of the post.]

Magee Review of Criminality Information

I am interested in the “The Magee Review of Criminality Information” which is:

a substantial report with wide ranging implications for all organisations which collect information that may be relevant to the prevention, investigation, prosecution, or penalising of crime.

Home Secretary Jacqui Smith anticipates - among other things - that:

we will build on, extend and strengthen existing streams of work, such as the programme the Home Office has led to implement the recommendations from the Bichard inquiry, to develop a clear strategic direction for the improvement of criminality information management across what Sir Ian is calling the public protection network.

and that she will:

improve the effectiveness of our vetting and barring processes so as to protect children and the vulnerable from those unsuitable to work with them.

The Written Statement by Jacqui Smith the Home Secretary from which I am quoting is here.

Time to Examine the Magee Review

Without expressing any particular opinion, this needs examining with a microscope - if only for the potential impact on all of us if they get things wrong in any respect.

“Placed in the Library”

Unfortunately the statement concludes:

“Copies of the documents have been placed in the Vote Office and the Libraries of both Houses.”

I’m based in the Midlands - so I need to know how I can review these findings at a time when Parliament is not sitting, or even when it is in session.

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Ministerial Written Statements Summer 2008: The Final Batch

From the desk of admin ·July 18, 2008 at 2:50 pm · Filed under All WW, Internet / Technical, Parliaments, Politics

A brief update to my previous posting.

On the last day of the Parliamentary Session, another 46 Ministerial Written Statements were released. That makes 98 since last Thursday.

To be fair, that is less than last-year’s 117 in the last 3 days.

Some nuggets:

* Planning Inspectorate Annual Report and Accounts 2007-08.
* Equitable Life - again.
* Free Cash Machines (Low-income Areas). Provide 600 new free cash machines in poor areas. Is PO closure negating this programme?
* Food: Poultry Register
* EU: Financial Management and Fraud
* Revenue and Customs: The next stage in the reorganisation. Looks relatively innocuous.
* Review of Civil Aviation Authority
* Local Transport Bill: “measures to improve public transport and tackle road congestion.”. Hmmm - one for Councillors.
* Annual Reports: Jobcentre Plus (HC 707), the Pension Service (HC 855), the Disability and Carers Service (HC 719), and the Rent Service (HC 729).
* The annual report and accounts of the Child Support Agency will be laid before the House shortly. (Does that mean during the break? - or is that shortly as in “next October”.)

Doubtless some innocuous, but others ….

The list is here: http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wms/?d=2008-07-17

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