The Wardman Wire

I’m back!
After a long break from the blogging world, I am back from today with my weekly column and, no doubt, the occasional rant here and there…

Is the tide turning?
The winter months have shown some stability in the polls with the Tories seeming to maintain a solid double figure lead. However, as with the snow, it seems that things are perhaps beginning to thaw between the electorate and the government. If the latest trends continue, far from being a solid Tory win come May this year, we could really be facing the prospect of a rather messy looking political picture in 2010 and beyond.

A few polls a recovery does not make
Of course, while the left have been getting excited by the latest few polls, some putting the Tories at only a seven point lead, the fact remains that not only do the Tories still command a lead that should see them scrape into power, which is power all the same, but also “a few polls, a recovery does not make”… or words to that effect!

Why are the Tories not doing better?
That is not to say Cameron and co. will be not a little nervous over recent events. The Tories and the media have thrown the kitchen sink at Gordon Brown and his government in the past twelve months; Britain has been through the sort of economic break down that should bring down dynasties, yet all they can muster is a slender lead over their much ridiculed rivals. So why aren’t the Tories galloping ahead?

Like many political questions, there are no simple answers and even opinion polls trying to get to the root of the matter often conflict. However, I have a few theories at least…

United they fall
Firstly, the Labour party have been fantastically, perhaps foolishly, loyal to their leader. Yes we have had Charles Clarkes and Geoff Hoons – but they have only succeeded in solidifying their leader’s position. They were one man bands who were perceived as opportunist, while Brown was seen as a victim who deserved his party’s support. One of the most overriding factors in the Tory’s downfall was their disgraceful party indiscipline – the electorate were sick of seeing their own government tear each other apart. Labour has not fallen into this trap, despite much temptation.

It’s not necassarily the economy, stupid
Which leads me on to the next point – it’s not entirely the economy, stupid. While a faltering economy certainly does a government no favours, there are many other factors that will bring down a government, or keep one in place. By 1997 John Major’s government were seen as more far more competent at managing the economy than Labour, according to polls, and economic growth was well on the way. Yet it didn’t save them. The point where Labour sank below the 30% mark last year did not coincide with economic turmoil; rather it was the expenses scandal. While the economy has no doubt had an effect, it is not as damaging as perhaps we might assume.

The Cameron effect not quite as strong?
The Cameron effect is beginning to backfire a little in recent weeks too. At PMQs Brown is consistently scoring points on him, something that was unthinkable a few months ago. The Tory’s latest bill board adverts, with Cameron’s airbrushed face, have spawned a million spoofs. Tory mocking, a sport we have not seen since the days of Michael Howard, are making a comeback. Brown’s light jabs about class have been far more effective than the Crewe and Nantwich slapstick and it appears to be working… for now.

The old problems
Then there are the old charges against Cameron and his party. They are policy light, their policies don’t’ add up, they are still the nasty party, their position on Europe is unintelligible, they are divided on too many issues, the list goes on. When times are good and leads are strong, these accusations fall on deaf ears. When the polls begin to tighten, then the media and the electorate start to pay more attention to these questions and this can then be reflected in the polls.

Cameron out the headlines
Another factor maybe that Labour has been getting all the headlines recently and that means the Tory’s best asset, David Cameron, has been out of the news. Northern Ireland, Afghanistan, economic recovery and so-on have been all Labour stories. When Cameron is out of the news, the polls start to merge. Come campaigning time proper, Cameron will begin to get far more airtime and the effects on the polls may begin to show again.

Tories are still leading, don’t forget
Despite all the challenges facing the Tories in seizing power, they still hold the better cards and the struggle to hold on to power is far bigger for Labour. As I have said, the fact still remains – despite all the goings on of the past few weeks and the past few months, the Tories still lead in the polls and it is their election to lose.

Labour faces an even bigger struggle
And Labour still faces one massive challenge if they are to even stand a chance of getting that hung Parliament – getting its core vote out. The people most likely to vote Labour are also the people least to go down to the polling booth come Election Day. The polls will continue to merge if Labour can get those people out to vote – a mammoth task and one that is far more daunting than the Tories getting that 2 or 3 percentage points back between now and June.

The smart money is still on a Tory win. What level of win, I am not so sure.