The Wardman Wire

The University and College Union has published a “report” claiming that there is a “true postcode lottery for education”, based on a belief that the percentage of people in any Parliamentary Constituency with higher qualifications determines how likely people from that area are to obtain such qualifications:

This report shows how access to education is divided up, using national league tables and an analysis of 21 of our biggest cities. It shows that where you live is a key determinant of whether you will gain qualifications.

The Press Release postulates this link:

The union said today that it believes education holds the key to improving social mobility, tackling poverty and extending opportunity for all. However it warned that the report shows the current divide between the haves and have nots is growing, with where you live largely determining your access to education.

That paragraph is fine, apart from the last sentance. The research to prove this link has not been done or documented. The UCU material is a simple ranking of data produced by a third party, interpreted to suggest that where people who already have degrees (actually NVQ Level 4 which means HND or above, not degree) live is a measure of areas with high or low educational achievement, and hence to all the wonderful unjustified conclusions splattered across the press today.

There is not a squeak about other factors which may affect the conclusions, nor – as would be expected in “new research” – is there an evaluation, justification or explanation of the techniques used, the strength of the data, the size of the samples, or publication in a peer-reviewed forum. We just have a Press Release, an Executive Summary, and a few supporting web pages.

The UCU publication does not mention, for example, that:

• People with degrees move to where they can get work, so – for example – the area round a major manufacturer will lead to a concentration of engineers.
• An area full of degree holders may be a dormitory town for people who live elsewhere, and that the rest of the area may in fact be depressed.

Most significantly of all, the jump from a high percentage of degree holders in an area to a conclusion about the ability of people in that area to reach higher education is simply assumed and made the subject of a headline, rather than proven.

To prove this link the UCU would have to undertake a study tracing a population sample from different areas over the period of an educational lifetime. This has not been done.

Media Churnalism, Mainly

Large chunks of the Mainstream Media seem to have swallowed this idea that the number of people with a degree living in an area is a clearcut indicator of educational attainment for people from that area, or perhaps they have just recycled the UCU press release without sufficient scepticism.

Press Association

An analysis of educational achievement by parliamentary constituency in England, Wales and Scotland, showed that those with traditionally high academic achievement had pulled further away from those at the other end of the scale.

BBC (Scotland)

The report found that the gap between richer and poorer areas was particularly stark between and within Glasgow and Edinburgh, Scotland’s two largest cities.

For example, more than half of people – 53% – in the Glasgow North constituency have a degree and only 7% have no qualifications at al

BBC (Wales)

People living in Rhondda are three times less likely to hold a higher level qualification than those in central Cardiff, a report has found.

The University and College Union (UCU) found a “postcode lottery” determined a person’s chance of educational success.

Wales Online

The Location, Location, Location report, published today by the University and College Union, reveals fewer people of working age have a degree-level qualification in Wales, compared to the UK average.

Only 26% of the Welsh workforce is educated to degree level or higher, compared to the UK average of 28%.

…

Peter Jones, chairman of UCU Cymru said: “Despite massive government investment across the UK the education postcode lottery is alive and well, including right here in Wales.

“Our report shows that where you live still determines your chances of education success.

Polly Curtis in the Guardian has a more accurate report, reporting much more heavily the migration of graduates to certain areas, rather than the claim that this determines access to education:

Britain is becoming increasingly divided along educational lines with degree blackspots springing up in the poorest areas of the country as graduates flock to the capital, new research shows.

Lib Dems MPs make you clever?

Rather wonderfully, the same logic produces the conclusion that being in a Liberal Democrat constituency produces higher educational achievement: 8 out of the top 20 constituencies are Liberal Democrat. Obviously – following the logic of the UCU – having a Liberal Democrat MP produces higher educational achievement.

(See data table on right)

Wrapping Up

To me this is a classic example of finding data to match a conclusion, then puffing the sexy bit to the Press.

I wonder what the Academic Researchers in the UCU membership will say. Perhaps it will be “leave research to us, and concentrate on Employment Relations”.

I’d say: read the blogs, not the Mainstream Media, for reflective reporting.