Tories and Labour have a miserable week and yet end up winners (of sorts): Politics Decoded by Garbo

By Garbo • June 9, 2009

Seven days in Politics
What a seven days we have just had in politics. Cabinet members jumping ship, expenses scandals raging on, backbenchers calling for their party leader’s head, the small matter of the second largest exercise in democracy in the world taking place, the worst showing of the major parties in living memory, the collapse of government support, the continued good showing for UKIP and the rise of, in European parliament representation terms at least, the far right.

You could write books on the past week we have just had and it may well take the context of time to really make sense of what has happened and what its implications are. In the meantime, some thoughts…

The Tory week
First up, let’s look at the Tories. Overall they will be having mixed emotions. On the one hand they are up against a government on its knees. The Labour party has taken an absolute battering in the past week, full on blows to the chin that not even John Major had to endure. They might believe that they have well and truly completed phase one: destroying the government. What will be of more concern to them is their continued failure to complete phase two: become the undisputed party of choice – and without phase two, phase one is never really complete.

No progress, but no major set back
The Tories were always going to take a battering in the wake of the expenses scandal, but to only take in under 28% of the vote is quite frankly nothing short of a failure. You can be sure that Mr Cameron sleeps better in his bed at night these days than Mr Brown, but the Tories have made virtually no progress in percentage terms on 5 years ago. Expenses scandal or no expenses scandal, it must be a worry to the Tory leader. Despite his bravado on calling for an immediate General Election, the last thing the Tories need at the moment is mandate on themselves.

The headlines do look good for them at a glance – particularly in Wales; but they have not actually done any better at all, they have just not haemorrhaged votes like the government has. While the government are in disarray, the Tories must surely still have some doubts about the concrete nature of their own support.

Keep the show off grounded
This may be no bad thing however. There was an element of arrogance creeping into the Tory narrative recently. Spokesmen started talking in terms of when, not if, there is a Conservative government. A feeling of righteousness was also becoming apparent in their communications – “look at how bad the government is”, but at no time giving the impression that needed to demonstrate how good they are. Perhaps this will be a wakeup call to them to show them the deal is not done and the electorate are still seeking answers not accusations.

The sorry state of the government
Of course, whatever the mood in CCHQ, it will be party of 1980s rave scene proportions compared to the misery hanging over No.10 at the moment. The Labour party were punished mercilessly by the electorate last Thursday. The Tories, by the fortune of the expenses scandal and by the brilliance of Cameron, have kept Brown from talking economics for what seems like months now. Once the policy agenda is taken away from Brown, the government nose dives in the polls. This week was their crash landing.

Even so, it is no time to change leader
To poll just 15% and be beaten by a virtual single issue party is extraordinary. However, all this talk of changing leaders is cowardly and ridiculous. The supposed hero of the day is James Purnell for doing the honourable thing apparently. What a load of cock and bull. If he was a truly brave man, he would have done this a year ago when the party could feasibly change their leader and turn things around. Instead he waited until a moment when he felt he could not lose. Well, he got it spectacularly wrong and has possibly paid for it with his entire government career.

Cowards with self interests, not party interest
The Labour party cannot even get full on revolt right at the moment; the cabinet members and backbenchers who feel someone else (though no obvious candidate has come rushing to their cause) could do a better job, deserve exactly what they get at the moment: a Brown leadership. They had their chance to do something and now are acting like cowards who have personal interests at heart, not the party’s fortunes. The party’s fortune was at stake 12 months ago, the only thing they care about at stake now is their individual jobs.

UKIP
Despite a good showing for UKIP who are now officially Britain’s second party on European matters, they could actually be the biggest losers from the resulting events. The failure of the Labour revolt has meant an early election looks even less likely and the focuses will now, perhaps slowly, move back to the main parties. While they will be pleased with their efforts, to really capitalise on this success they needed that early election.

The biggest winners
Incredible as it is, Gordon Brown is in a stronger position as a result of the past seven days and yet the Tories are perhaps slightly weakened as they are bought back down to earth. Brown, perceived by the Tories to be an election liability, is still in the job which will please Cameron. An election now would be disastrous for both parties; the delay perhaps provides the opportunity for Brown to to win back some support and focus on a recovering economy and Cameron some time to recover votes lost to UKIP and others and set out his stall far better.

So, in the long run, the final outcome of this most disastrous of weeks for the leading political parties could well be, given last week’s starting points, the best possible result for both Tories and Labour alike.

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About the Author

Garbo

Garbo is The Wardman Wire's Political Editor. He can be contacted directly on poliblogsAThotmail.co.uk for all queries including media and blogging inquiries.

6 Responses to “Tories and Labour have a miserable week and yet end up winners (of sorts): Politics Decoded by Garbo”

David Keen
Tue, June 9, 2009 at 2:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

This is probably psychobabble, but I wonder whether Labours kicking at the elections will have had a cathartic effect on the voting public, some of whom will feel that Labour have had their punishment. We’re increasingly coached by reality TV to use votes as an expression of how we feel, a way of engaging emotionally with reality rather than responding to rational choices.

None of us want to be governed by UKIP, but voting for them in Europe is a safe way to vent our spleen, as a couple of extra UKIP MEP’s are neither here nor there in a parliament of over 700.
Garbo
Tue, June 9, 2009 at 2:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

I think there may be something in that. This was Labour’s kicking. They have bottomed out. They have been punished. “Things can only get better” is more apt for the Labour party today than it was in 1997!

However, they now have a mountain to climb and they will need every single month they can get in order to turn the economy round and get a few of the floating voters back – hell, a few of their core voters need to come back too! This is why sticking with Brown is their safest option as a new leader would have to be coronated – a leadership battle would be so damaging – and an Autumn election would have to be called as voters and media would demand it. All this change Brown nonsense is too little, too late.
Frances
Wed, June 10, 2009 at 1:51 am | Permalink | Reply

Well Garbo – you can but hope that Labour have bottomed – but I doubt it. With a moronic imbecile in charge like Brown, even with the arch serpent behind to hiss in his ear, he is going to stuff up.

Personally – I think the Tories took it, they could have lost out to the voter’s backlash over expenses,( after all the media have had a great time with duck islands and moats) but they didn’t. It appears the the electorate are far less willing to forgive the Labour party.

And if you add to that the stupidity of fools like UAF (who are associated with Labour in most people’s eyes) – I look into my crystal ball and see more disasters for labour ahead.

I am sorry Garbo, for I sense you have a fondness for them, under all that ‘unbiased approach’
Garbo
Wed, June 10, 2009 at 9:34 am | Permalink | Reply

Frances – as I make very clear, I too agree that the Tories had a much better day of it with these elections. They have clearly been affected by the expenses scandal too and I am sure they will disappointed that they have not made any serious progress on their share of the vote and given the political climate of the past two/three years I am afraid polling just 28% is a failure. But the fact they did not lose loads of support like Labour did will be of encouragement. There is nothing partisan about that, I assure you.

I also think that the Labour will only rise from here. I just cannot see the government polling below 15% at anytime in the near future. Again, nothing partisan about that.

Long term readers of my column will now that the one person I am more scathing about than anyone in politics over the past couple of years has been Gordon Brown. He has been a disaster for the party and forgetting his personality, his strategic approach to government and No.10 has been quite draw dropping at times.

However, I do not believe that he should go now as a purely tactical decision. I made it clear last year that I thought he should go. I just do not see the sense in it now. Labour need every month they can get now in the hope the electorate will mellow as the economy recovers. Given the Tories failure to “seal the deal” there is still a glimmer of hope for them – but a very faint glimmer all the same!

I have also been very critical of the Tories over the past couple of years, but praised them when I feel I agree with their approach and policy decisions. I have made it clear my admiration for Cameron at the same time I have highlighted areas where I disagree with certain aspects of his approach and party.

I would certainly agree with statement that the electorate are far less forgiving of the Labour party – and with good reason. However to write a weekly column where I simply say they are doomed with no analysis or hypothesis about what their best hopes for recovery or highlighting what I think would be their biggest mistakes to make is not what Politics Decoded is about.

In short – yes I do have Labour sympathies and I also have sympathies with the Tories too in just about equal measures. I happen to think they are Britain’s two premier parties for good reason: because they have the best politicians and the best vision for this country. But I am not afraid to criticise either of them too – and I would hazard a guess that on balance I have written more negative pieces about the government in the past 12 months than the Tories… and for good reason! But I will continue to criticise the Tories too as they are the government in waiting and deserve every bit as much scrutiny and questions asked of them as Labour. I make no apology for this.

Finally, I would like to make it clear, I am not a member of any political party and I have not yet decided where my vote will be going come the next general election (and when I do, it’s my business!!).
Garbo
Wed, June 10, 2009 at 9:35 am | Permalink | Reply

PS. – I would not describe my approach as unbiased – I am very biased towards what I think is right… even if many disagree!
| The Wardman Wire
Fri, June 12, 2009 at 10:42 am | Permalink | Reply

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