The Wardman Wire

Policy Network/CreativeCommons

James Purnell’s resignation last night was a dramatic turn of events, no doubt. This is the leadership from Cabinet level I’ve said should be given if Gordon Brown is to be ousted. It turns the heat up considerably following Hazel Blears’s resignation, making it more likely others will refuse to serve; I think Brown is now on his way out. It’s now public that John Reid told Brown to resign – he’s made a non-denial denial; Barry Sheerman is asking for some sort of vote of confidence, and on BBC’s Newsnight last night I heard two further MPs, Siobhan McDonagh and Nick Raynsford, saying Brown should step down.

This may be an isolated, personal move from Purnell. He’s said he’s not seeking the leadership himself, which is realistic enough to be true, but if Brown is deposed this conspicuous act of courage will ensure he’s a big part of Labour’s future. But what’s very visible is that Blears, Reid and Purnell are all identifiable Blairites. This could – could – be either the coordinated plot Gordon Brown will no doubt paint it as, or at least a meeting of minds as politicians with similar political outlooks draw the same conclusions and act in unplanned concert.

Either way, to strike now serves the Blairite wing of the party admirably. Even as a supporter and admirer of Tony Blair, now almost as much as I was in 1997, I’m astonished there are any Blairites left. Most Labour members heaved a huge sigh of relief when Blair stood down – his departure was in no way similar to Margaret Thatcher’s resignation, which tore out the hearts of the Tory faithful – and the party required a return to a more mainstream, traditional Labourism, which it thought it would get with Gordon Brown. Well, he didn’t provide that, or any ideological renewal, but instead merely a tired, puzzling continuation of what went before, but delivered without new ideas or apparent zeal. But my analysis has been until now that the next leader, whoever he or she is, would have to offer that leftward shift in due course, and that whatever happened, a Blairite would be the last person who could obtain enough votes from Labour members and union members to become Labour leader. Even David Miliband, attractive, energetic and ideological though he is – his Guardian article last year did offer much more passion for transforming society than Gordon Brown has shown – suffers from that handicap. That’s why I’ve suspected John Cruddas, who made a distinctly trade unionist, centre-left bid for the deputy leadership last year, was the most likely next Labour opposition leader following defeat in 2010.

But the unexpected urgency of this moment changes things. According to the Labour Party’s rule book, if there’s a vacancy for leader – which there may be – then the Cabinet must choose who will be leader pending a proper election procedure. The obvious interim leader is the current deputy, Harriet Harman; though it’s not impossible the Cabinet could rally round someone else who wants the leadership. In any event, a quick contest gives a Blairite who is credible now, and who offers “the confidence to make our case afresh”, in David Miliband’s words last year, a real chance of seizing the leadership, without serious opposition from the left. He may not win the general election – probably won’t. But this way, he stands a decent chance of being leader in opposition with at least some prospect of power a few years later. To wait until the wake of a 2010 defeat risks meeting a well-prepared challenge from Cruddas, say, from a more traditional political position, and being beaten as the Party gladly moves left.

Miliband’s dilemma is agonising. If he resigns now, but Brown survives – his political career may be finished. At best, he’d have a run at the leadership next year. If he resigns before Brown goes, he risks the taint of treachery. He must hope he can avoid Brown’s call until after, say, Alistair Darling or Peter Mandelson goes, or is offered a humiliating move, and so has an excuse to go. The one thing he should not do is support Brown, or signal a preparedness to serve any longer under him – saying, as he did last night, that he will not resign and disagrees with Purnell, is a mistake. He must seize his chance now, do all he can to topple Brown, and run. I doubt he, or any Blairite, will have this chance again.