The Wardman Wire

Gordon Brown is going to be forced in to a shuffle this week or next regardless of whether he wants one or not.  The next few weeks are going to be his most dangerous as PM yet, with the expected poll bashing on Thursday and the standing down/sacking of some big names.

The real danger he faces from a reshuffle is that the bigger it is, the more problems he potentially faces.

Firstly, the more people he moves the more chance there is someone will refuse a job; someone refuises a job and you are in a world of pain and the whole reshuffle faulters.

Secondly, the more heads that roll, the more ghosts there are to haunt him.  With no McBride to act as the Ghostbuster, a long and distinguished list of names could be about the throw an axe right in Brown’s direction.  A sacked Darling or Smith?  A fed up Miliband or Harman?  A hurting Blears?  An impatient Johnson?  The list goes on…

Personally, the best move Brown could make is to put Balls at no.11, shift Miliband to the Home office and give Mandelson the foreign office.

I know, I know Balls and Mandelson are not the most popular of chaps, but that is his strongest front line and he will need it for the coming weeks.

I also think Andy Burnham will get a promotion of sorts – he is a smooth operator and a future star of the party perhaps.

Predicting these things is a mugs game however – I doubt even Brown knows exactly what he will do just yet.  He needs to sound out a few players first and also hope a full scale revolt is not on the cards…