The Wardman Wire

The Lisbon Treaty is about to rear its ugly head
As talk now turns to the last major elections in the UK before a general election, the focus will begin to fall back on Europe and, in particular, the Lisbon Treaty.

Remember the Lisbon Treaty?  The dead duck constitution that was finally consigned to the history books when the Irish voted no to its adoption into their constitution? Well, sometime between now and October, the Irish will get another vote on it and this time is looks very likely that the EU will get the answer they have been shamelessly looking for.

The Yes vote is winning
The latest polls suggest that over 50% of the Irish electorate are now in favour of voting yes in a referendum; only 33% are opposed to it. This turnaround in fortunes for the Treaty has come about for three reasons: the revised Treaty has made commitments to allow Ireland to retain an EU Commissioner. The so called new treaty also contains legal guarantees to deal with other Irish concerns on neutrality, abortion and taxation. But perhaps the most overriding reason for the shift in change is the ever deepening economic crisis.

It’s the economy stupid
There is a sense all over Europe now that we are better off sorting this mess out together, rather than as isolated nation states. After all, was it not times of crisis like this that the EU was originally conceived, rather than petty debates on pounds and ounces? This will be felt particularly strongly in smaller states like Ireland where they will feel less vulnerable under the wing of the EU’s larger economies.

Since November, the Irish have gone from 43 per cent in favour, 39 per cent against to 51 in favour and 33 per cent against the Treaty – and the yes figure is continuing to rise as the world economy gets worse. The latest TNS mrbi/Irish Times poll suggests that a whopping 80% of the Irish now support membership of the EU. In statistical terms, this is extremely high – I can think of very few other political issues that would receive such high approval ratings.

Should a Yes vote concern the British?
So what does this all mean for the UK? Well, since we have ratified the Treaty, we are already tied in. All it takes is an Irish yes and it is virtually go, go, go for Lisbon. Should this be of great concern to us? Well, in policy terms I tend to think not. I do believe that Britain is better off at the heart of Europe rather than at its peripheral. I do believe Britain will better weather the economic storm as part of the EU. Our position in the world is better off as part of Europe as well – we saw last week the aloofness Barack Obama showed to Gordon Brown, imagine how uninterested he will be in Britain if we are not one of the main protagonists within the EU? The Treaty will also make Europe function better, there is no doubt about it, which will provide more economic, social and democratic benefits to Britain.

For the economy
Perhaps most importantly, the faster Europe sorts itself out, the more advantages it can take from the economic crisis. After all this crisis, while it is very damaging, will also present massive opportunities to the main global regions that put in place the strategic plans to pounce on the rewards of recovery. Asia is perhaps going to be most damaged by the downturn and South America may not be quite ready to rise to the top.  This leaves a massive opportunity for the Euro-zone to achieve some of its enourmous potential. No other region in the world has a socio-economic infrastructure that can take full advantage of the industrial, trading, energy, climate change and social issues that will face the world in the post de-regulated era.

Yet there is still a nasty taste in the mouth
Yet despite all this, there is still a grumbling and dissatisfaction that I have with the EU. It is not so much born out of an inherent suspicion of Europe, rather it is the complete lack of respect shown for the so called EU citizens by the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels that makes my basic instincts want to dig my heals into the ground when the Lisbon Treaty and EU integration is mentioned.

The hypocrisy and lack of democracy
After all, those who seem to think there is nothing strange about re-holding a referendum just a few months after the “wrong” result was reached must surely be so out of touch with the voters that they cannot be trusted with making these decisions. And it is plain insulting that one of the main reasons given for re-holding the referendum was that the Yes Campaign was poorly managed! Does that mean we should re-run the 2005 general election in the UK because Michael Howard was banging on about immigration when what we cared about was healthcare and education? Does it mean if the No Vote Campaign does not go to plan this time, they will have grounds for calling on yet another vote? Of course not!

Those opposed to the EU often say that the Brussels men and women act like they know more than us. Well, the fact is they probably do. The real problem is they should be telling us more, educating us more and being open with us more. Trying to force through measure like Treaties and Constitutions with no explanation nor seeming regard for democracy will only make the people of Europe suspicious and resentful regardless of whether the “know-it-alls” are doing the right thing or not.

At least we have faces in Westminster
While we have a lot of criticism for our MPs in Westminster, at least we get to see them on the news and current affairs programmes; at least they are openly accountable to their constituents. At least we get to see our elected officials have a good old ding dong with the PM every Wednesday afternoon. But what of the girls and boys in Brussels? The faceless, unaccountable mysterious phantoms who we all know exists (we have proof in our tax bills) but we don’t know what they do or why they are doing it.

Poor PR or something to hide? We need to know either way
So yes, the EU may well be a great thing for the people of Britain and I do deep down believe that, at the very least, it really could be – but who really knows? A lot fewer people than should, and a lot fewer people than those in Westminster and Brussels might care to admit. Either the EU has a PR problem or it has something to hide. Unless it is open, the only obvious answer to the masses is the latter… and using the economic crisis as an excuse to pursue further integration is a quick fix that will not work in the long run.