The Wardman Wire

Over the last couple of weeks I’ve been experimenting with a technique to compare the top Google search results for any collection of websites for any set of keywords.

Today I want to introduce an analysis of which UK political websites – blogs, news sites, party-linked websites, and media sites – score most highly for searches for well-known politicians on Google. This week I will be running a series of articles introducing different aspects of this study, and I welcome comment and critique of the method. I’m especially interested whether this is a useful technique for political analysis / campaigning.

In my example, I have run a comparison of searches for all the MPs and Peers in the Labour Cabinet, and the Conservative and Liberal Democrat Shadow Cabinets – that is around 100 names, and compared how well 45 websites do in the Google results for these searches. This study comprises almost 5,000 data points. A full list of the websites I have studied is at the end of this first article.

This allows me both to discover which websites are most likely to be read for coverage of leading politicians and parties, and to assess what material on each website is likely to be read by visitors coming from Google. At a more strategic level I can profile what particular websites are writing that is likely to reach “non-political” readers, and work out the strategy being pursued by the “opposition”.

This is a long article, but I hope it is worthwhile. I present some large graphs, which you will need to open in separate tabs or print out. I will post this piece as a PDF separately.

The Wardman Wire Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet Google Profile

[Update Fri 29/1: Christopher Squires in the comments has asked me to explain the graphs.

The X axis is the position in a Google search, so low numbers are best. So - for example - the Wardman Wire graph shows that this blog appears high (i.e., a low number ) in the results when someone searches on “Schillings” (the legal firm) or “Tom Harris” (the ex transport minister).

If there is no bar for a keyword, that means that it doesn’t appear in the results on Google at all.]

You need to be looking at the graph as you read the next paragraphs.

1. There are 100 or so search terms. From the top they are 5 or 6 of interest to me, then about 30 members of the Lib Dem Front Bench, the Conservative Front Bench, and the Labour Front Bench – in that order.
2. The graph on the right is the first occurrence of that search term in the Google results for “the UK”. There is a short discussion of exactly what this means at the end of the piece. The lower numbers (shorter bars) represent the better results in Google, and the greater likelihood of traffic.
3. The actual numbers represent data pulled straight from the Google API (Applications Programming Interface)
4. I’d like to get rid of the scale on the left, but that will require more experimentation – or a crude crop of the graph next time.

From this profile, it is clear that:

1. The site is still very competitive for “Schillings“. That is a result of articles written back in October 2007. I wrote one of the key articles that was linked to by many people.
2. We are competitive for the names of some Ministers – usually as a result of interviews or larger articles.
3. We do not have many competitive articles for searches on the names of Conservative Shadow Cabinet members. We need to increase our coverage of the Conservatives if we plan to do full spectrum coverage. For example, our competitive ranking for Hazel Blears is to the text of Hazel Blears famous “Cynical, Nihilistic Bloggers” speech. I was the first to publish the full text and a number of people linked to the piece.

Why does Google matter anyway?

The importance of ranking well in Google results is threefold:

1. Perhaps half of traffic to UK political websites comes via Google – Google has a massive effect on who sees our articles.
2. Within Google searches, the top few results for a search term are overwhelmingly likely to attract traffic.
3. For political websites, Google is perhaps the single most important way in which people from outside the “political ghetto” look for political comment on the internet. For those of us running websites, Google visitors are a key opportunity to get our messages out to the general public. Two examples of what can happen when a political blog breaks through on Google are Dave Osler’s coverage of the Shakilus Townsend case, and my recent coverage of my problems of my ISP – when the Wardman Wire became one of the foci of online discussion. In the latter case the blog was in the top 10 for the key search term when it was popular.

As a webmaster I have an indication of how likely my articles are to be read for particular searches and topics, which can inform my decisions.

The Profiles of Lib Dem Voice, Labour Home and Conservative Home

(Google Profile Graphs Left to Right)

Labour Home

: Conservative Home : Lib Dem Voice

Observations on Party Activist Websites

When I look at these three “profiles” side-by-side, it seems that the Conservative Home search results are over a more focused range of search terms than either Lib Dem Voice or Labour Home. I think this can perhaps be put down to two factors.

1. Firstly, Conservative Home is a stronger “epicentre” in the Conservative Party than either of the other sites in their parties, and is more concerned with developing policy and internal Tory debate than either of the other sites.
2. Secondly Conservative Home is perceived as the “archetype” of such sites, and feels less need to oppose the other sites.

Both Labour Home and Lib Dem Voice, and especially Lib Dem Voice, outrank Conservative Home for searches on the names of more than one Conservative Shadow Cabinet Member’s name.

In Search of Grant Shapps MP

If you want to find a blogger comment about Grant Shapps you will meet these two pieces from Lib Dem Voice on the front page of Google:

• - EXCLUSIVE: Grant Shapps says “realistically we’re not going to win” in Ealing
• - Ealing fallout: Grant Shapps axed

and you will find nothing from Conservative Home until about page 15.

And Eric Pickles MP

Eric Pickles is the same. If you go searching for Eric Pickles on Google you will come across these 4 results in the first couple of pages:

• - Eric Pickles slams Conservative councils for wasting money (Lib Dem Voice)
• - Eric Pickles apologises for John Prescott bulimia joke (Lib Dem Voice)
• - Eric Pickles on Prescott’s bulimia (Labour Home)
• - Tag: eric pickles (Labour Home)

But the Conservative Home result is on about page 5.

I hate to think what all the comparative results are for all the sinning Tory councillors that Mark Pack keeps annoying Iain Dale with, while ignoring the dodgy Lib-Dems. The terms are probably uncompetitive enough that the articles will go straight into the top 20 results for their names.

Caveats

There are a lot of reasons to treat these results with caution. Here are three:

• The rankings change minute by minute, so rankings do not stay constant.
• There are many varieties of Google, for different countries, regions, and search options. The results from querying the database will not necessarily be identical to any of these, never mind the setup responsible for most UK traffic.
• Even within UK traffic, there are “Web” and “UK pages” options – and results vary between the two.

Nonetheless, in general the results do reflect what happens, so I am willing to draw conclusions from the data.

Wrapping Up

I have this analysis for the 45 websites listed below, and I’ll do several more articles examining blog, media and party websites.

I’d be pleased to answer any questions personally, as I think this is a useful analysis method which can be applied to any set of keywords for any websites.

I can be contacted on mattwardman AT gmail DOT com.

Appendix

Politicians Covered in this Study

I have used simple “Firstname Lastname” searches for the following politicians:

Labour Party Cabinet

Alan Johnson, Alistair Darling, Andy Burnham, Baroness Royall, Baroness Scotland, Beverley Hughes, Caroline Flint, David Miliband, Derek Draper, Douglas Alexander, Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, Geoff Hoon, Gordon Brown, Harriet Harman, Hazel Blears, Hilary Benn, Jack Straw, Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, Jim Murphy, John Denham, John Hutton, Liam Byrne, Lord Drayson, Lord Malloch-Brown, Margaret Beckett, Nick Brown, Paul Murphy, Peter Mandelson, Lord Mandelson, Shaun Woodward, Tessa Jowell, Tony McNulty, Yvette Cooper.

Conservative Party Shadow Cabinet

Adam Afriyie, Alan Duncan, Andrew Lansley, Andrew Mitchell, Caroline Spelman, Cheryl Gillan, Chris Grayling, David Cameron, David Mundell, David Willetts, Dominic Grieve, Eric Pickles, Francis Maude, George Osborne, Grant Shapps, Greg Clark, Jeremy Hunt, Kenneth Clarke, Lady Anelay of St Johns, Lady Neville-Jones, Lady Warsi, Liam Fox, Lord Strathclyde, Mark Francois, Michael Gove, Nick Herbert, Oliver Letwin, Owen Paterson, Patrick McLoughlin, Philip Hammond, Theresa May, Theresa Villiers, William Hague.

Liberal Democrat Party Shadow Cabinet

Alistair Carmichael, Chris Huhne, Danny Alexander, David Howarth, David Laws, Don Foster, Edward Davey, Jenny Willott, Jeremy Browne, John Thurso, Julia Goldsworthy, Lord McNally, Lord Thomas of Gresford, Lorely Burt, Mark Hunter, Michael Moore, Nick Clegg, Nick Harvey, Norman Baker, Norman Lamb, Paul Burstow, Roger Williams, Sarah Teather, Simon Hughes, Stephen Williams, Steve Webb, Susan Kramer, Tim Farron, Vince Cable, Willie Rennie.

Extra Keywords of general interest

• Alisher Usmanov – The “silencer of the blogs”. After the “Closing down of Craig Murray episode” in October 2007 this search term was dominated by critical articles on blogs. It still is.
• Schillings – The notorious libel law firm. After the “Closing down of Craig Murray episode” in October 2007 this search term was dominated by critical articles on blogs. It still is.
• Carter-Ruck – The other notorious libel law firm. Perhaps this search *needs* to be dominated by critical articles.
• Ann Milton – The MP for Guildford who has been “of interest” to Tim Ireland recently.
• Lynne Featherstone – I recently interviewed Lynne.
• Tom Harris – The prolific-blogger and ex-Transport Minister, who is often mentioned by many sites.

Websites Covered in this Study

Party Sites

• - http://www.conservatives.com/
• - http://www.labour.org.uk/
• - http://libdems.org.uk/

Party Grass Roots Sites

• - http://conservativehome.blogs.com/
• - http://www.libdemvoice.org/
• - http://www.labourhome.org/

Political Blogs

• - http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/
• - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
• - http://www.mattwardman.com/
• - http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
• - http://bloggerheads.com/
• - http://dizzythinks.net/
• - http://www.politicalbetting.com/
• - http://www.order-order.com/
• - http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
• - http://www.chickyog.net/
• - http://www.hurryupharry.org/
• - http://www.labourlist.org/
• - http://curly15.wordpress.com/

National Media Sites

• - http://www.bbc.co.uk/
• - http://www.guardian.co.uk/
• - http://www.ft.com/
• - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/
• - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
• - http://www.mirror.co.uk/
• - http://www.theherald.co.uk/
• - http://www.express.co.uk/
• - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/
• - http://www.independent.co.uk/

Online / Regional Media

• - http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/
• - http://www.walesonline.co.uk/
• - http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/

Political Media

• - http://www.epolitics.com/
• - http://www.politicshome.com/
• - http://www.politics.co.uk/
• - http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/
• - http://www.totalpolitics.com/

Magazine Sites

• - http://www.economist.com/
• - http://www.spectator.co.uk/
• - http://www.newstatesman.com/

Other Sites

• - http://www.theyworkforyou.com
• - http://www.wikio.co.uk/
• - http://www.number10.gov.uk/