The Wardman Wire

Could the next general election be the last one fought under the current first past the post system?

Within the next eighteen months we know that Gordon Brown is going to call an election – exactly when we are still unsure, but it will be at the time he thinks he has the most chance of winning.

That position is actually a lot more optimistic for him than you might first think. Even if Labour is six or seven points behind in the polls, they could conceivably be the largest party in parliament and, with a bit back rubbing here and there, form the next government. Even more incredibly, if they are three or perhaps even four points behind in the popular vote, they will more than likely have an overall majority in the House.

But will the electorate stand for a government ruling the country, even though they have lost the popular vote by such a dramatic difference? Can you imagine Gordon Brown claiming he has a mandate to implement his manifesto when more people voted David Cameron to implement his?

A hung parliament also brings the Lib Dems into play and they have long campaigned, for obvious reasons, for a system of PR. Could they dangle a carrot in front of the Tory’s noses to help them get into government? Or will Brown be forced to accept that if he is not to go down as a PM who never won an election, he will have to make concessions for the Lib Dems?

Whatever happens, I suspect we will be facing a very serious debate on the way we elect our government within the next few years. I wonder what the Tories will think about electoral reform if they are its biggest victim next time around. Even I, as a supporter of first past the post, would find it hard to fathom the legitimacy of a mandate for a government who had lost a popular vote.