The Wardman Wire

The pollster crisis
What on earth is going on with the polls? One day we have MORI putting the Tories up three points and Labour down five, a couple of days later COMRES show the Tories down six points and Labour up four. It seems the economic turmoil is reeking a little bit of havoc with the pollsters too. But is there anything we can read in to these polls at all, given how fickle they appear to be?

The short answer is not much. However, there is one trend that must now be starting to worry the Tories (or it may well do soon anyhow)  not one of these polls is showing the sort of lead for the Tories that you would expect after the almost endless list of problems Labour has had in the past five years.

The Do-nothing party are doing nothing
There is still another eighteen months until we can expect an election – at the moment I do not think Brown is taking the June 2009 option seriously. I, like many others, have said that the Tories would be foolish to show their policy hand too soon – but the criticism that Cameron is a “do-nothing man” leading a “do-nothing party” is starting stick. While the economy was traditionally a strong area for the Tories and has almost always been a strong area for opposition parties, for some reason the government is reaping the rewards from this crisis.

Tories not converting their chances
The simple answer is because the Tories and David Cameron in particular, are offering nothing by way of a solution or an alternative. The Pre-budget report last week should have been massive for the Tories, but they are just not getting their message across to the electorate. They are happy to criticise the cut in VAT – and rightly in my view – but then do not capitalise on the mistake made by the government. It was the same with Northern Rock and all the other banking disasters – they were quick to say what was done wrong, but then fizzled out on a solution, and even worse went on and backed the idea. They just do not seem to be converting any of their chances and scoring a few own goals in the process.

Time to talk policy
So far from 2009 being all about how the Conservatives seized the initiative and ended the New Labour project, we are none the wiser as to who is in the driving seat come the next general election. In fact, the Tories are in danger of slipping back fifteen months and being behind in the polls. The last time that happened, Cameron and Osborne were forced to show their hand and talk about policy and it worked.

Serious policy and say it right
I do not mean fluffy policy either. The electorate are not worried so much what the Tories think about the environment, not at a time like this. In fact, more specifically, the Tories need to start talking serious policy and say the right things. The Heathrow third runway debacle was quite simply a joke. Theresa Villiers made the Tories a laughing stock on transport policy – and damaged their credentials as a party who support business. It was naive, poorly thought out and badly judged – though I expect a u-turn on this policy before the nation goes to the polls. They need to be the party of the economy again because Gordon Brown, quite rightly, has a monopoly on that at the moment. And why is it quite rightly Brown’s monopoly? Because he is saying and doing things - agree or disagree with what these things are if you like, but he is the only one doing anything.

Two words
Cameron needs to step up his game and start talking serious policy or risk being buried – and not necessarily by Labour but also his own party. That may seem unthinkable now, but I will leave you with two words: David Davis – a man conspicuously quiet and lurking in the shadows and a man who you just sense has not given up the political game just yet…