The Wardman Wire

Rumours are growing
It is expected that Gordon Brown will be shuffling the pack next week, and there are various rumours flying about as to who is in and who is out. We know he will be looking for a new Transport Secretary and it seems that the Geoff Hoon rumours at conference were founded and he will be making way for a new chief whip. But the main interest will be in what to do with David Miliband and what to do with Alastair Darling.

Brown’s conundrum
This presents a real problem to Brown. Should he reward Miliband for being so obedient during conference and promote him to No.11? Or should he punish him for stirring trouble in the first place? The second option, while Brown may wish to take it, is a non-starter. Demoting Miliband would pretty much be taking him off the reigns and a challenge to his leadership would be inevitable. The first option is also fraught with danger.

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t
Firstly, you have to get rid of Darling to make way for Miliband. While it might go down well with the electorate to dump the bumbling Chancellor and making a scapegoat of him, it will release him as a loose cannon. Darling is clearly not happy with the way Brown left him in it and has not been 100% clear about the looming “bad times”. If he gets sacked for an economic disaster that is not of his making while Brown gets away with it, he will happily put the knife in, I am sure.

A Miliband refusal?
Then there is the risk that Miliband turns him down, which may well happen. By accepting the Chancellor role, Miliband is immediately thrust in to the fire. The economic break down is only getting worse and it is a massive risk for his reputation to take on. It will also put an end to his short to midterm leadership ambitions. By taking a promotion and becoming the man closest to Brown, he is accepting he is part of Team Brown.

Disarray
If Miliband does turn down the role it throws Brown’s plans in to disarray. It means reinstating Darling or calling someone else in and the knock on effects of that will be interpreted as more dithering and poor leadership from No.10.

Perhaps it will be a nothing shuffle
Brown’s hands are rather tied for this reshuffle, despite the speculation of some major changes. It seems that the most likely outcome, therefore, is that Darling and Miliband remain in their current roles when the reshuffle comes – be it Thursday or Friday next week. Any other move could well spell danger for Brown. But what will the electorate say to that? More of the same old faces and problems? Desperate times call for desperate measure so I would not rule it out entirely; I just think it is unlikely.