The Wardman Wire

Things have just changed gear
With less than a week to go until the start of the Labour party conference, the leadership debate has been ratcheted up a notch or two. After a very quiet summer, that led the BBC’s Nick Robinson to say the leadership debate was dead, things have really started to get going again. The feeling in the media is now not if but when will Brown go? However, there is still a fair distance to be run before Brown will be making his last stand, which is only making the position for the Labour party even more dangerous.

A weak and wounded leader
Labour are currently shooting holes into Gordon Brown but failing to land the fatal wound. It would be a disaster for the party if Brown were to somehow survive all this, after ripping itself apart and totally discrediting its leader only to have him lead them in to an election. They would be an unelectable laughing stock. Either the sniping stops now or Brown goes – and we all know the sniping will not stop.

What needs to be done?
It will take 71 Labour MPs to nominate the SAME candidate before a leadership election is forced. This is looking very unlikely at the moment with barely a dozen names out in the open so far and no obvious candidate. Most significantly, not one of these dissenters is from the cabinet – in fact, so far the cabinet have come out to back their leader. Yet it seems that the only way that Brown can be forced out is if his cabinet rebel. So who, if anyone, will make that move?

Miliband in danger
David Miliband, who was seen just a few months ago as the main protagonist, is now in danger of looking just like his leader – weak and dithering. Some say that he would do well to bide his time and wait until Labour lose an election before making his move. The theory is he is young enough and he would not want to take over a sinking ship anyway.

Piffle. The man started to sound out making a move and, like Brown and the election that never was, has now gone too far to not act. If Labour lose the next election they could well be out for quite some time – enough time for a new young thing to take the limelight away from Miliband. Even worse, if Miliband does not strike now I think his reputation will be damaged. He has been causing trouble behind the scenes but has not shown the cojones to do anything about it, so far at least - and time is running out.

Plenty of candidates
Of course, there are plenty of candidates who want to stab Mr Brown in the back. Hutton’s performance at the weekend was laughable in his half hearted attempts to back Brown. Harman would love a shot at the leadership – though I might add, it would be the kiss of death if she did become leader. Darling, you sense, is just one disaster away from becoming a loose cannon as are one or two others.

Harder than it seems
So what is needed is a credible candidate and strong support not only from the backbenches but also the cabinet. So easily said, yet so much harder to coordinate and realise. I still think Brown will go, but it is not going to be easy for those who want to push him. In fact, it may well be very hard indeed.

Do the dignified thing Gordon
And therein lays the danger: the longer this is dragged out, the more damage the party suffers and Gordon Brown should realise this. Politics should be about policy and saving the economy. Instead it is about the soap opera. The time has come for Brown to demand his party “put up or shut up” and force a leadership election himself – it is the only dignified solution to this ongoing problem.