The Wardman Wire

What next?

The cat is out the bag. Glasgow East was the tipping for Labour and no longer can they pretend nothing is wrong. Gordon Brown is under fire from all quarters, including his cabinet behind the scenes. But what should they be plotting to actually do? After all, while it might be the majority of the country who want Labour out, it is not in the interests of the cabinet or Labour backbenchers to take a beating at the polls. So, what should Labour do next?

Step down Mr Brown

The most popular choice for the electorate would be for Brown to step down and Labour has a proper leadership contest, unlike the coronation of 2007. But even still, would the country allow Labour to have two so called “un-elected” Prime Ministers in a single term? On the one hand, they would not have a choice of course; but then the problem if an election wasn’t held immediately would be that the electorate would hold even more resentment against the government and the Tories would have easy cannon fodder.

Defeat is on the cards

So, Labour elects a new leader and PM and they go straight to the polls. Does anyone think that that would save this government from a crushing defeat to the Tories? I suspect it might soften the blow, but the damage is so bad at the moment that stealing a victory from the jaws of defeat just seems implausible. There would have to be such a massive change in the political narrative that a gamble would have to be taken on the new leader.

This takes out Jack Straw and Alan Johnson. While either would have been a better choice for leader in 2007 in my opinion, putting one of the old guard in place would simply not be dramatic enough to turn the tide. I even think Miliband would be seen as too Blairite to be able to really make a difference in such a small time period. This leaves two choices: Harriet Harman and James Purnell.

Real change

Harriet Harman would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons. All of a sudden we would have a female PM out of nowhere. It would throw the Tories line of attack right out and put Labour back on the front foot. It would also change the overall political narrative – in short it would be a novelty. The problem is, Harmen is not PM material and the gamble would be huge. Yes it would change things, but sooner or later she would be found out. Her two performances at PMQs this year really sum it: she went in to the first with low expectations from the spectators and did a good job. But Hague found her out on her second outing and the mask slipped and pretty much fell off.

Purnell would also be a real break from the past. He a very likeable and intelligent minister and has charisma to go with it. His main problem is his lack of experience. Would he also want to take the step now to lead a party to what looks like a defeat and ruin his future prospects as a successful Labour leader? Well, chances are few and far between at this level and I think he would throw his hat in the ring if a challenge was a real prospect. Again, a gamble for Labour to take Purnell on but when the options are certain defeat or a small chance of victory, the gamble doesn’t seem so big after all.

The third way? Go down with a fight at least!

The third way is to steady the ship with a Jack Straw. Prepare for defeat, but salvage some pride. This is the tactic that hopes to avoid a decade or more in the wilderness as happened to the Tories in 1997. This is probably the safest option – it appeases the voters by getting rid of Brown and holding an election and saves a few Labour MPs their salaries in the process. But I would say to this – what is the point? I believe the Labour party should do whatever it takes to ensure victory and if that means taking a gamble on Purnell then so be it. At least you have gone down fighting.

Oh – and stick with Brown

Of course, the stick with Brown option is also on the table don’t forget! Ride it out for two years and hope something, anything, happens to reverse the fortunes. Things are not as bad as they were for the Tories in the 1990s I do not think but then again, is that a benchmark Labour want to aspire to? I think that sticking with Brown, while it will ensure two more years of Labour rule that any other option does not by a long shot, is also accepting defeat. The tipping point has been reached with Brown – he cannot win in a general election. The political narrative has been chosen for Brown – he is a loser.