The Wardman Wire

And relax…

Finally summer is upon us and that can only mean one thing – our MPs are off on their holidays. Gordon is off to Southwold in Suffolk while Alastair Darling is off to the Outer Hebrides – I know! What is wrong with these two? At least Dominic Grieve isn’t trying to be all humble and false – he is off to the Caribbean… and then to France. And good on him.

So two months or relaxation and getaways. Perhaps. Or perhaps not for these chaps…

Mr Brown

Gordon Brown – everyone says that the best thing he can do is go on a proper holiday… some even suggest that he should not come back. Going to Suffolk for your break is just about as close to the coast you can get from Westminster. I am not surprised though – when the King is away that is when the plotting for the crown is most frenetic. Brown is right to be paranoid and would do well to not stray too far. The only problem is he really does need to get away from it if he is going to come back in the autumn full of vigour. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.

Mr Miliband

David Miliband – he now has two months to decide whether he will push for a shot at the leadership. There is no point in any challenge after this year as we will be too far down the line towards the general election. If he is going for it this year, then party conference seems to be the best time to do it. But is there any point at all?

It has been widely assumed that Miliband is the best answer to the leadership problem. But I am not so sure. History has shown that the favourite rarely wins a leadership election – and even less common is it the protagonist that wins it. By putting his head up first Miliband could be the fall guy for someone else. It is also a big gamble for him – if he is leader before a general election is there time to reverse the fortunes of the Labour party? Why take over a sinking ship? Then again, will he ever get another shot at being Labour leader or PM quite like this ever again?

I suspect the gamble is just too great for it to be sensible for Miliband to move. It only makes sense for him to stand if Brown falls on his sword… but is a man as stubborn as Brown likely to do that?

Mr Purnell

James Purnell – now here is the man I believe will be the next Labour leader. The next few months he just needs to raise his profile rather than consider any big moves like Miliband. Purnell is not as left wing as Miliband, does not look like Brains but still has them, and has the charisma to go with it too. He is sat very nicely in the middle of the field at the moment and can time his move in reaction to others. Expect to see more and more of James Purnell over the coming months and in particular the summer– and when there is a full scale and open leadership battle, Purnell is where I will be putting my money.

The Rest

While Miliband and Purnell cannot openly plot if they are to keep their credibility, there are one or two other rats that can really cause some trouble in time for an eventful conference in Manchester. Harriet Harman is the only untouchable in the cabinet as she was voted in as deputy leader. OK, it is not a cabinet position, but she holds real elected power and it will be hard to kick her out. We have already heard the odd whisper that she might make a challenge, but was firmly ridiculed for it by Hague at PMQs. She can be a player over the summer recess if the plotting begins.

Charles Clark will be relishing the next couple of months if he still has a stomach for the fight. He was the early runner in the dump Brown campaign of course, and by the autumn he could be first one to put his head above the parapet. Indeed, while Clark stands no chance of ever being leader, he could be the one to light the touch paper.

Unlikely, but foolish not to plan anyway

It is lighting that touch paper that is the hardest and most unlikely event. However, once it does become lit and the likes of Straw, Johnson and Harman weigh in it will be unstoppable. I suspect that if we are to have a fight for the leadership any time soon it will be a straight punch out between Miliband and Purnell – and however unlikely that is to happen by the autumn, they would be foolish to not at least use these coming months to prepare.