The Wardman Wire

One last banana skin

Parliament rises for its long summer recess a week today, but there is one last banana skin that Gordon Brown must negotiate before he can head off for his long needed, if not deserved, break: the Glasgow East by-election.

The past ten months have been relentless for Gordon Brown; he has failed to avoid every single banana skin that has been littering his path. And when he does come a cropper, he really does fall spectacularly on his face every time. If he does fall again in Glasgow East, will be able to get up this time?

A Labour banker

In theory Glasgow East should be a banker for Labour. They hold a massive majority there and the damage in the polls is far kinder to Labour north of the border than down in the South of England. Overturning what is nearly a fourteen thousand majority would be so dramatic as to be almost unthinkable. Labour got 60% of the vote in 2005; the next best was the SNP on a mere 17%. Despite all the problems Brown has faced in the past year, at least he goes to a poll knowing that he is the favourite for the first time.

Livelihoods are at stake

However, it is because of this that the stakes are only raised even further. A loss for Brown in Glasgow would officially mean no Labour seat is safe anywhere in Britain and that will worry some very influential members of the Labour party. While MPs will almost always toe the line of the party leadership, when it comes to the point that their livelihoods are under threat it is every man and woman for themselves.

Going in to the recess on such a low would only fester over the summer. The media will have little to write about and so will probably stick with the story. Then the party will reconvene in Manchester for the conference and the rumours will really start to grow. It is likely that whoever sticks their head up first will be the fall guy, but if enough people egg someone on then it could well happen. Once there is open dissent, Brown is finished.

The toughest fall of all

I still think that defeat in Glasgow East is the longer shot, but the fact that it is a possibility at all tells you a lot about where Gordon Brown has taken the party in his first year as leader. With things the way they are he can just about hang on, but a defeat a week on Thursday would be the toughest fall yet for Gordon Brown to get up from.