The Wardman Wire

This morning Sandef Rhyferys has published a translation of a letter to David Cameron from Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of the Institute of Welsh Politics at the Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth University.

Professor Wyn Jones addresses the future possibilities for Welsh politics, and the future of devolved government in Wales. He argues for a further shift to greater powers for the Welsh Assembly.

It is a long letter, and I have quoted the first part below. I have not indented the quote on this occasion.

From Sanddef:

Translation of a letter to David Cameron written by Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of the Institute of Welsh Politics at the Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth University. The original welsh version can be found in the current edition of the Welsh current affairs magazine, Barn.

Dear David Cameron

Forgive me if I’m terribly mistaken, but I suppose wales has never been foremost in your thoughts? Nothing wrong with that, of course. One might as well admit that the Tories have only played a small part in the life of Wales since over a decade now, and the Welsh themselves have had only a small part to play in the life of the Conservative Party since…well, ever as far as I know. Bearing this in mind, ignorance should not be a cause of shame – nor apology either. Nonetheless, is appears to be increasingly likely that you will become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland within the next two years. So Wales will then soon become a part of your responsibilities. As you are preparing to take your place in Downing Street, I’d like to seize the opportunity to draw your attention to a few elements in Welsh politics that you should become aware of before you start to play such a leading role in the life of our country. I will try to do so in a way that is fitting to your and your party’s likely aims in the contect of Wales.

Objectives

I believe there you have two main objectives as far as Wales is concerned. Firstly youwant to ensure the election of more Conservative MPs in Welsh constituencies. Your expectations on this will be realistic ones. You no need no specialist knowledge of Welsh politics to realise that this has been an unprosperous enough ground for your party. Nonetheless, winning a total of 6 to 8 seats in Wales would be of real benefit in carrying you across the threshold of number 10. It would also to some extent be a means of lessening the perception that the Conservative Party is an English party. That is important as your second objective is to preserve the Union.

Don’t worry, I understand perfectly that it is the Union with Scotland that really counts. After all, Scotland forms a quarter of the United Kingdom’s territory and in its seas are to be found 95% of the oil. A Scottish port is the home of those submarines that carry Britain’s nuclear missiles. In other words, losing Scotland means losing Britain’s greatness. That means that Scotland is important in a way that Wales can never hope to be. Nevertheless, perhaps you would much prefer it if Welsh nationalists never gain the same amount of strength and momentum as their Scottish cousins. That would only destabilize the state further and threaten its international status.

If this is indeed your starting point, allow me to draw your attention to three all important factors you will need to know if you are to realise these objectives.

Public Opinion

To the wonder of those of us who remember the 1997 referendum, let alone its predecessor in 1979, the people of Wales are now devolutionists. This is underlined by making a comparison between Wales and Scotland. In Scotland opinion surveys are constant in finding between 40% and 50% of the people of that country favour some alternative form of government to devolution: some of them favour no devolution at all but many more of them support independence. In complete contrast, there has not been one academic survey of views that has found more than 15% in favour of independence. On top of this, the percentage that opposes any form of devolution has fallen to about 15%. That means that as much as 70% of the electorate now favour some form of devolution for Wales. If you can respect that opinion then you can be fairly sure there is no danger of the Welsh catching the Scots’ fever for independence.

Read the rest over at Ordovicius

Tags: ordovicius, Richard Wyn Jones, aberystwyth, david cameron, conservative, tory, wales, welsh politics