The Wardman Wire

Is the gamble paying off?

Is the gamble paying after off after last week’s David Davis bombshell? Despite a rocky start from the media, so far I think Davis is edging it. But much as the Tories would like to play it down, this story does have three sides to it: Davis, the government and the Tories.

The Polls say “Yes”

This week’s YouGov poll does suggest that he has not had a negative effect on the Tories. They are actually up 2 points from the previous YouGov poll. MORI also suggests that he has support in his constituency too, with 57% supporting his decision. But the biggest sign that Davis is winning the battle is the change of rhetoric from the Murdoch Empire.

The logic of the Murdoch press

In the run up to the vote on 42 days, the Sun in particular was accusing the Tories of playing politics with national security. A position I never understood; after all, at no point did the government make the case for 42 days, it based its arguments on emotive language and “what ifs”. When the vote did take place, they weren’t happy for the motion to be passed on the merits of the argument, but by buying and bullying their way to “victory”.

I was astonished when I heard George Pascoe-Watson claim on Question Time that on matters of security he was happy for the government to do just about whatever it takes to pass a vote. How is that democracy?

Murdoch: Cameron’s poodle?

But oh how things have changed. Trevor Kavanagh, columnist and former “most powerful man in politics” (as former Sun political editor) has changed the tone of the paper. He claimed that “David Davis is an ego-driven maverick, but he has struck a nerve with voters of all parties who are fed up with acting as bit-part players in a real-life Big Brother.” Sounds like a U-turn to me. So what was it that caused this?

The bigger picture here is that Murdoch is wary of picking a fight with the Tories. He likes to back a winner and he has fallen out of love with New Labour. Make no mistake, this is a big moment for the Tories in their long march towards power: for the first time since 1992 the Tories have the media demonstratively eating out of their hand. They have changed the narrative of the country’s biggest selling newspaper. It happened for Labour in the 1990s and now it looks like it is happening for Cameron et al.

It wouldn’t be like this under Blair

Can you imagine the Tories doing this a couple of years ago? The media would have had a field day and Blair would have made mince meat out of the situation. He would have exposed every weakness in the argument and the Tories. He would have made it look childish and weak. Instead, Gordon Brown is nowhere to be seen. It is another example of how strategically bad he is at the political game. Somehow, Brown has made himself look weak from a behind the scenes rift in the Tories. How does this man do it?!

But what now?

The Tories are still in dangerous territory here however. If the move is a success, Davis will be welcomed back to parliament a hero. Does Cameron give him a cabinet spot though? Whether he does or not, Davis will now be a thorn in Cameron’s side. I can only see his return to cabinet as a problem for Cameron and on the backbencher as an irritant. Davis is not a man who will keep quiet if he is unhappy – we have seen that.

If the election becomes a damp squib it also spells trouble – particularly for Davis. The attention will have been diverted away from a failing Brown camp on to a side show that will make the Tories look a bit silly. Neither good for Davis nor the Tories.

Get the rebels to rebel

What Davis needs to do now is get some of the rebel Labour backbenchers on his side. That would score points for his personal campaign and also score big points for the Tories as Labour appears more split than ever. I doubt that many backbenchers would dare go as far as actively backing Davis in a by-election campaign – and it would be unthinkable if there is to be a Labour candidate. But there is still potential to cause rifts in the party with this one.

Morals versus point scoring

Of course, you may think I am missing the point here and this is about principles and not party political point scoring. Well whether that is true or now, the fact is the electorate will respond to events on the ground and that includes perceptions of how united a party is. As a matter of principle, I support Davis on his stand. However, if I were part of the Tory leadership I would be worried and angry. There were other ways to tackle this issue – like putting policy changes in a manifesto. Why make a principled stand that puts at risk your best chance for making principled changes?

Thursday 12^th June

The jury is still out on this. I still think it is a damage limitation process for the Tories. Even if they score points in the short term, the longer term implications are far more worrying. If there is a split in the Conservative party I will wager that the origins to it will be traced back to Thursday 12^th June 2008.