David Davis: The Gambler by Garbo
BANG!
Well who saw that coming? Not many I suspect. David Davis’ resignation may well be the first of its type: resigning his seat, not in protest to his own party, but to the opposition government. How this story plays out in the coming days will be absolutely critical because, make no mistake, David Davis is now playing Russian roulette with the Tory party. The stakes are high and the rewards may well be very good, but the consequences could also be disastrous.
Time for the Tories to implode?
I have always believed that the Tory party are just one bad story away from imploding and this could well be the one. While Cameron has backed Davis’ resignation and by-election bid, it is clear Davis has forced Cameron in to doing something he did not want him to do. Not only that, but this sort of posturing undermines Cameron’s leadership. How many times are we going to hear the words “Davis for PM” or “Davis for Tory leader” over the coming days and weeks?
Or bad news for the government?
On the other hand, if Davis’ intentions are as pure as they appear to be, this could also bury the government. Judging by Davis’ brilliant statement, he really is passionate about what he is doing here and as long as he focuses his attentions on the government and not his own party leadership this gamble could yet pay off.
Winning the hearts and minds of the people
Davis has tapped in to something here. The polls may suggest that the 42 day detention was popular with the electorate, but overall I sense people are fed up with losing their civil liberties at the rate with which we are. The inevitable debate that this will trigger may well further shift that opinion too.
In the balance
The government must now expose any bust up within the shadow cabinet. There is also the possibility that the government will not stand a candidate in the by-election. They may well try and paint this as a feeble stunt and sour grapes from a man who lost a big vote.
But they must be careful: if they misjudge the mood they could be in serious trouble. If the public decide that Davis is a man of principle and that we have lost one too many civil liberties, a strategy of ignoring the issue may well backfire. And do not forget, judging by last night’s vote, the biggest split on this issue is within the government, not the Tories – this throws yet more fuel on to the government backbench rebels’ fire.
The Gambler
Whatever the outcome, this is a quite extraordinary move from Davis. He is threatening not only Cameron’s authority as party leader but also the Tories lead in the polls. He has threatened to open up factions in his party and take the heat off Labour at a time when they are for the taking. On the other hand, he may well have just played a master stroke that could well put the final nail in Brown’s coffin.
Either way, we are entering an unpredictable time for both parties - not least, however, the Tories.
Party politics? Bah!
Forget about party politics though, we may well have we reached a tipping point with the up to now unopposed erosion of civil liberties. And I for one hope we have.
Categories: All WW, Westminster Watch
Very interesting commentary. Amongst my friends Davis is getting universal support - there’s already people arranging to visit H&H.
Makes Quentin Davies look even more ridiculous which is a good thing.
PS - If you think the Conservative Party is about to ‘implode’ you’ve been spending too much time with Lefties
Praguetorys last blog post..Having Like-Minded Friends
@Praguetory: Be kind to the man - I gave him a 30 minute deadline!
PT - thanks for you comments.
I do think that there is a danger that Davis’ actions could lead to a right vs left debate in the Tory party which really would be disastrous.
In the 24hrs that this story has so far played out, I would say on balance it has been a negative story for the Tories - how Labour reacts will really be key in whether it backfires or not though. If they can judge their response correctly then expect the polls to tighten. If they misjudge it like they did in Crewe then they will be in serious trouble.
I just think, given the starting positions, it is the Tories who have far more to lose on this one.
There is some precedent, see Iain Weaver’s post.
Indeed, as Iain states, the most recent was in 1985.
Also, you remember all that bluster a few weeks ago over the first by-election win for Tories in yonks? Well the previous Tory by-election win was courtesy of a principled resignation.
Aaron Heaths last blog post..hey labour
The Youtube vid of David Davis’ resignation speech:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=lzpodjxmHlI
Note (from the beginning of the video) that Davis was NOT ALLOWED to give this speech on the floor of the House of Commons – he was over-ruled by the Chairman, and forced to present his speech from the pavement.
This is a powerful speech, worthy of quoting – the transcript is here:
http://tinyurl.com/6nehm2
I agree - a brilliant speech. But so much now depends on this issue being perceived by the media and electorate as a stand on principle rather than a cheap and pointless stunt. The jury is still out on that…
We shall see. I think this causing ructions amongst Left-wingers. Reading Lib Conpiracy or Luke Akehurst I’d say there’s more potential for splits on the Left.
Praguetorys last blog post..Having Like-Minded Friends
PT,
Splits?
LibCon’s writers traverse at least 4 political parties. Don’t be a pumpkin, eh? It’s not remotely party-political. Most of the regular writers are LibDem’rs now.
Aaron Heaths last blog post..42-days and david davis’ resignation
Well, Labour are already split over this issue! Just look Diane Abbott’s speech afer the vote.
However, if Davis decides he wants to be a menace in the Tory party we could see the people on the right of the party who have been quiet since Cameron has been storming the polls take him as their leader.
As you say, we will see. The other option of course is that Davis dissappears in to political oblivion.
It is so hard to call this one - but one thing is certain, Davis has out himself and party at risk.