The Labour party, after yet another worst case scenario week, now faces a stark choice: to hang on to their leader or to dump him.

This boils down to a simple test – is Brown the best option for Labour to win the next election? To answer this you have to understand what the options are and for Labour they may well just be fewer than they hoped…

Stick With Brown

The first option is to stick with Brown. On the surface it also appears to be the least desirable for all concerned! I think Cameron summed it up best when he described Brown as a “loser”. Everything this man has done as leader has gone wrong – even the things totally out of his control have made him look stupid. While events have conspired against him, his own actions have exasperated the events to the point that a safe Labour seat is lost in a 17% swing at a by-election. Within twelve months he has just about single handedly destroyed the new labour project. So why would anyone go with this option?

Another “Unelected” PM

For a start it’s not going to look good to the electorate to have three leaders (Prime Ministers) in one year. It stinks of failure and incompetence and we have seen where that takes a party over the past few months. Even worse, Brown has always been seen as an unelected PM. Any replacement he has will be seen as the same – only this time the calls for an immediate election will be unbearable.

Who would want the job anyway?

More to the point, who would want to be PM right now? Gordon Brown is captaining a sinking ship and the economy is so uncertain at the moment that whoever is in charge runs the risk of taking the country in to recession – a sure fire way to lose an election. The Milibands and Purnells of the Labour party are still young enough to stick it out for Brown to be forced out at a general election and then mount their challenge. A Tory win at the next election will by no means be on as firm a ground as the Blair win in 1997 was and there is a good chance that a strong opposition could regain power after one term.

It’s not over yet…

The real risk you run with dumping Brown is that it sends out the signal of failure that may never be recovered. Despite the headlines, the government is not in the same quagmire as the Major government was in the 1990s. Key to this is that, so far, the economy is holding on. If we do not descend in to recession and things do recover within two years then Labour are still very much in the game. And do not forget that the first past the post system means that the Tories have an electoral mountain to climb to overcome if they are to become the next government.

The Contenders

The other option is to replace Brown. The obvious question here though is with who? As I have said, who in their right mind would want to lead the Labour party right now?

John Cruddas or John McDonnell would relish the chance but would be unlikely to win. The last thing Labour needs to do right now is to move to the left – that will put them out of power for a generation. Jack Straw and his generation have missed their chance I feel. And the younger generation of hopefuls are unlikely to want to blow it too soon in the face of a Tory election win. There is also the possibility that such young blood maybe seen as inexperienced to run the country.

Things can only get better

On the plus side, it can’t get any worse than it is right now. If you think Brown has blown any chance of winning an election, then you are better to do it sooner rather than later. The problem is would the electorate allow yet another “unelected” PM take charge? The Tories would make great capital out of it for sure. But it would also feel like a fresh start if done correctly. It worked for the Tories under John Major when he replaced Thatcher in 1990 – he went on to win an election two years later snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

Remember – the electorate have not bought in to the Tories yet like they did the Labour party in 1997. All that has happened is that people are disillusioned with the Brown administration. There is no firm allegiance to the Tories yet – but the longer the government waits to sort things out, the more chance that Tories get to cement their support.

A tough decision

This race isn’t over yet and dumping Brown is rather like his cabinet running around like a bunch of Corporal Jones’ shouting “DON’T PANIC!” The very act of dumping Brown could well resonate with the electorate as the last act of a dying government – the confirmation that the New Labour project is over.

On the other hand, if you were a backbencher with a seat that was under threat and felt that Brown has no chance of winning the next election, why wait to get rid of him – at least there is still two years left to turn things round without him cocking it up.