The Wardman Wire

The tables can be turned very quickly on the Tories

Yesterday I wrote about how the electorate are looking for Labour blood and to inflict that they are using the Tories. Well, just suppose the Tories fail to inflict the wounds that we so desperately want to see upon Brown’s leadership?

Just as easily as we want to damage New Labour, if the tables are turned the Tories would be foolish to think they are immune. If they somehow fail to win Crewe and Nantwich tomorrow, the political narrative could be very different to how it is being delivered at the moment. It is easy to forget how quickly they turned on Labour – in the space of an Andrew Marr interview.

The Electorate is fickle – and rightly so

By all measures, the Tories should stand no chance tomorrow. This is a safe Labour seat contested by the daughter of a recently deceased, much missed and popular Labour MP. Yet the expectations on the Tories are now so high that anything other than a win will be seen as failure on their part. Incredible, but such is the thirst for the Tories to inflict the wounds on Labour that they must now deliver. If they fail, it could also spell trouble for them – and if the balance can be turned back in the favour of the government all of a sudden we could see Cameron getting a bashing from his party, the media and the electorate. The reason: we are fickle.

Ideology is a history

Gone are the days of ideological government. If the Conservatives stand on an ideological right wing platform they will be history. The same will happen to the Labour party if it decides that its best course of action is to pursue its Marxist roots. The key to being in the game at election time is occupying the middle ground and pragmatism. The key to winning elections is being the party who is seen as most credible while occupying this position.

There is little between Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems at the moment. There is very little ideologically between them. The reason there is such disparity in the polls is because Brown is seen as incompetent and so we look to the Tories. This is shaky ground that the Tories are setting the foundations on. If the economy recovers and the spot light falls on the Tory’s incompetence for a time, the cracks will begin to show with them too and the polls will narrow.

Politics is not football

The parties no longer belong to the grass roots. The days of supporting a party like a football club are gone. Once a Wolves supporter, always a Wolves supporter – and if they are playing ugly football and heading for relegation then you only shout louder from the stands. Well the same can’t be said for political parties. If a party is not doing well, then the supporters will not stick around for long and will seek out an alternative. And quite rightly too – political decisions are too important to blindly follow those making them.

A warning for the Tories

And so a word of warning for the Tories: do not take the lead in the polls for granted. Do not take it as a blind endorsement of your brilliance and a desire for the people to have you in charge. Most importantly do not fall in to the arrogance and distain New Labour has assumed over the electorate over the course of the past few years. These polls are not indicative of our love for you, rather they are the electorate saying we are fed up with Brown and you are the alternative… for now.