The Wardman Wire

They’re back!

It is official: It is ok to vote Tory once again. It has taken the best part of fifteen years, but no longer is it something people are embarrassed to do. Next stop: Government.

Well, not quite.

It could not have been worse for the government

Let’s make no bones about it. Last week’s election results were a massive success for the Tories and an absolute worst case scenario for Labour. Even the most ardent of Tory supporter would not have had the gall to predict such an overwhelming battering of the government. And even the most pessimistic of Labour supporter (and there are plenty of those right now) would have thought it could have been this bad. Labour was well and truly stuffed last week and it was a sorry indictment of Gordon Brown personally.

Still all about Labour, however

Yet, it is all still about Labour. People are looking for an alternative right now and that in itself is not good enough for the Tories. They have to become the party of choice. They are clearly the party of choice in the South. But that is about it. In Scotland the alternative is now the SNP. In the North Labour are still alive, though maybe not kicking quite as hard as they have been and in some parts it seems the Lib Dems are the alternative. The jury is still out in Wales, but the Tories still have work to do there two. In the excitement of last week it is easy to get carried away with the rate of progress.

Still much more to do

The Tories have moved on light years since Cameron was elected leader. But the battle is a long way from won. It is easy to think that this process has happened over the past six months, but it hasn’t. Labour were the darlings of the media and large section of the electorate for many years; however that love affair came to an end with the Iraq war. From then on it has been a more cautious, business type relationship. Then came the bumbling balls up of the election that never was, Northern Rock, the 10p tax band – and a whole other host of bad politics. Labour are now the joke of media and electorate with Brown and Darling cast in the roles of Laurel and Hardy. What the Tories must now do is cast themselves as the heroes… and while there are on the right path, they are not there yet.

The Science bit

Remember: the election is two years away yet and the electoral system still vastly suits the government more than it does the Tories. To demonstrate, the share of the vote in the in the local elections would have give the Tories a majority of about 126 seats if the shares were repeated at a general election. Suppose it was Labour that got 44% of the vote though and the Tories who limped in with 24%, then we would be looking at a Labour majority of 190 seats. In this simple and crude example the system favours Labour by a whopping 64 seats. In reality, unless we face a serious economic meltdown, it is likely that things will be closer at the polls come general election day. It might not be good enough for the electorate to simply be seeking an alternative – they have to actively want to vote Tory all over the country for there to be a serious and certain prospect of change.

Time to dump Brown?

It is still pretty widely accepted that dumping Brown now would be a mistake. Three PMs in a year just doesn’t look good. Two PMs that have question marks over their elected mandate to run the country sounds even worse. However, if Brown is the loser that we all think he is what is the point on hanging on to him?

A bad leader of men. A bad decision maker. A bad Prime Minister.

The guy is a loser. It is plain to see. He has spent most of his political life trying to be Prime Minister, bullied his way there but forgot that when he got there he actually had to have a plan of what to do. No rise to power has been so badly timed. After 10 years of plenty, we face some uncertain times. The big guns of the New Labour project look old and jaded (and maginalised) and are being replaced by inexperienced yes men. Has there ever been a time when the shadow cabinet contained more recognisable faces and bigger guns than their opposite number in government?

And all of the big guns that remain, none have been given the sort of the role they should been given under Brown with the exception of Miliband who himself is inexperienced. Brown has proved himself to be a bad leader of men. A bad decision maker. A bad Prime Minister. With two years to go, it is still not too late to correct the mistake of making him leader and get someone with real appeal to take over the captaincy, steady the ship and bring some life back in to the party.

The waiting game

In theory, getting rid of Brown is the absolute right thing to do in my opinion. But in reality – who in their right mind would want to be leader of the Labour party right now? If I were Miliband, Parnell or Burnham I would not want to take over the party as it is sinking at a desperate rate. No – I would be safe in the knowledge that a vacancy looks like it could well be opening up in a couple of years when I had some good cabinet experience and the then make my move in opposition to a Tory government. All are young enough and for these three at least, the future is bright. Or brighter than Brown’s is anyway.