The Wardman Wire

Boris or Ken; YouGov or Mori: We’ll have to wait and see…

It’s the final straight to the big day: May 1^st. Will it be Boris, will it be Ken? We’ll have to wait and see…

What is sure is that the pollster YouGov is either going to be the only credible pollster left in the UK or its reputation is going to be in tatters. How it can predict a landslide for Boris when the other pollsters are saying it’s too close to call, I just do not know. The fact that YouGov has been polling people outside London makes me suspect they will be wearing a rather fetching shade of egg on their faces come Friday morning. I also suspect that Ken is going to knick it right at the post… but I won’t be going to the bookies to back that up!

The Local Elections too

The other big battle of course, is the local elections around many parts of the rest of the country. I suspect once again that things won’t be going as bad for Labour as many might think. Make no mistake, they are not going to be making gains – but expectation is so low that even if they can poll above the 30% it will be seen as some sort of success. This Thursday is a big for Gordon Brown, but it is in many ways even bigger for the Tories and in particular David Cameron.

Success and Failure: A fine Line

Firstly the Mayoral elections. The Tories are leading Labour by about 10 points in the polls at the moment – nationwide. London and the South East is the Tories back yard, their stronghold. If Boris cannot win with the home advantage what does it say about the Tories? In theory they should be battering Labour in this election. Livingstone is helped by the disassociation he has put between himself and New Labour; but still, if the Tories cannot win in London can they win anywhere?

Then there are the local elections. The Government has been under the cosh now for six months. Absolutely battered from all angles: the press, the media, the opposition, the electorate, even by its own backbenchers and the odd frontbencher too. Cameron and the Tories have had all the ammunition they need to not only wipe that creepy smile of Brown’s face, but also Labour off the political map – not only in London but in the regions too. Now is the time for the Tories to stand up and be counted and this Thursday is when we will see for the first time in about fifteen years whether the electorate are ready to consider handing them power.

The Tories Must Taste Success This Week

In simple terms, if the Tories do not poll in the 40s and beat Labour by a good 12 to 15%, then they will not have capitalised on the mess Gordon Brown has been making of running this country. If they do not beat Labour by more than 10%, then the spotlight will shift very rapidly from the Prime Minister on to David Cameron. And that will spell very bad news for the Tories.

The Heir to Blair or a Modern Day Kinnock?

I always have a feeling with the Tories that they are just one bad news story away from imploding. There are still far too many right wing dinosaurs in the party who resent Cameron’s attempts to modernise – while they are kept quiet during the good times, if the pendulum swings back in Labour’s favour you can be sure they will become very vocal again.

The parallels are there with the Labour party in the 1980s. Neil Kinnock had to get rid of the loony lefties before the party became electable – something they only finally achieved under Tony Blair. Cameron has to do the same with the Tories. He can only keep them quiet so long. He needs to keep the momentum going. If he can keep them quiet he may well be the heir to Blair, if not he may well have to settle with being the Tory’s Neil Kinnock.

A Pivotal Moment in two men’s lifes

Local elections are seen by many as an irrelevance, a side show. But make no mistake; the results this week are the first tangible, real signs we will have of what the next six months and beyond hold. It will either be more of the same for Labour and an ever more powerful David Cameron who will use this as a platform to twist the final screws in to the New Labour coffin; or it will be the lifeline that Brown has been looking for since the election that never was in October last year.