The Wardman Wire

The End Game?

All the talk of recent days is of the complete collapse of Brown’s government. It is all very premature and the media have been whipped up into a frenzy with speculation that Ed Balls is going to attempt a coup, that ministers left right and centre have lost complete faith in Brown and that even his beloved inner circle are looking to jump ship.

Of course, we are a long way from an election and the polls are less than reliable at the moment – some say a sixteen point Tory lead, some say just a six point lead. To put that in perspective – that ranges from a Tory landslide to a Labour minority government. And you can always add a few percentage points to the incumbent come polling day. So just what is the picture and what do the coming months really hold for the government?

The Blame Game

Let’s get one thing straight: the blame game. This falling housing prices and faltering economy are not entirely down to Gordon Brown or Alastair Darling. If that were the case, then why is it happening all over the world? You can argue that they have been walking us blindly in to it, but I suspect that whether it were a Tory government or a Labour government we’d be pretty much in the same spot.

It All Goes Back to October 2007

However, what Brown has done so spectacularly wrong is show himself up to be a completely incompetent PM, tactically at the very least. It all goes back to that fateful moment when the Brown bounce turned in to something quite different. The dithering accusations have never stopped since the election that never was last October.

What Could Have Been

If Brown had said immediately that there will be no election his reputation would have stayed intact. Not only that, but Cameron’s would be shot to pieces - which it was days away from being prior to the conferences. We would also be heading to the polls for a General Election on May 1^st with all the pollsters predicting a Labour win. I am certain of that. The government may have lost the odd seat, but the Tories would have no reason to stop the infighting and would have had no time to make any inroads in the North. Most importantly of all, Brown would not have the dismal reputation he now has.

The Man is a Born Loser

Of course, “what ifs” are meaningless. Ever since Gordon Brown made his pact with Tony Blair over the premiership all those years ago the man has been a loser. A loser of epic proportions. Events have conspired against him like they do against all the great Prime Ministerial losers. He has the strategic nous of a Terminal 5 baggage handler; and to top it all off his personality (for want of a better word) is comparable to Pete Doherty’s… had he not taken all those drugs.

What Might Happen Between Now and Conference

Now of course, Labour has not lost the election yet and I suspect we have a few more twists and turns before we will have a clearer picture of who will. I still maintain that if the economy can resist from falling in to recession, Labour has as good a chance as the Tories, if not better. But here’s what I’d like to happen in the meantime:

May 1st

Firstly, Labour is going to get a beating on May 1^st. If Ken loses as badly as Labour loses in the local elections the heat really will be on. Fortunately for Brown, Labour did so badly at the previous local elections that they do not actually have that many more seats that they can realistically lose – but it is still going to be bad. If that is the case the fun really begins:

The Reshuffle

Then the reshuffle: Brown will be dead against any reshuffle as he is not a risk taker… apparently. But if things get so bad he may well be forced in to one. Target number one has to be Darling – he could well be a convenient scapegoat. In the short term it will be like an admission of failure, but Labour has two more years to turn things round. Better start now than persist with the deadwood until it is too late.

The Leadership Challenge

Next, Charles Clarke continues his fruitless reign of terror. I say fruitless, under the right conditions, we could see someone (maybe even Clarke) mount a leadership challenge before or at the party conference in September. It may seem like a terrible idea as it would put Labour in to freefall – but if things have got no better by then, maybe, just maybe replacing Brown will give Labour some freshness and a reprieve from the electorate. It worked for the Tories under Thatcher with Major taking over. It might just save them too. A risky, risky strategy and one that need not be used if things settle down. But it is becoming a far more likely possibility.

Or maybe it’s just wishful thinking…