The Wardman Wire

Garbo is back and senses a change in the wind direction…

Regular readers of this column will know that I have been away for a couple of weeks or so on, what I saw as, a long deserved break. While away I tried to keep as far away from politics as possible, as politics is not only my hobby but also my day job. I think I did a fairly good job, though the temptation to sneak a peek at the BBC website and the odd blog did become too much on a couple of occasions. Anyway, they say a week is a long time in politics, and I have been out of touch with all the goings on at Westminster for nearly three - so what has changed?

Things have got serious

On the surface not a lot – the same things are still there, only they seem to have got a lot more serious. The credit crunch is no longer something that is talked about – it really does look like it is going to crunch hard. Alastair Darling is no longer the unlucky Chancellor presiding over civil servant gaffs and a down turning world economy; after his dreadfully poor delivery of the budget, he is now seen as a bad chancellor with no ideas and no inspiration. But the most worrying sign of all for the government, something I did not think would occur, is that the Tories may well be entering phase two of their resurrection…

One small step for Dave, one giant leap for the Conservatives

Phase one was getting permission from the electorate for them to be listened to. Until Cameron the electorate did not want to hear a word the nasty, old fashioned Tories had to say. Cameron knew this and has sought to position his party to that of one that is at least given a chance to be heard. It looks like he may just about have accomplished phase one. That is the easy bit, however. Next he needs to actually get people to listen.

The Polls

Up to now, the Tories have edged in to the lead in the polls, but in a rather unspectacular fashion. They have been sitting roughly six to eight points ahead – the sort of lead an opposition should expect mid-term, but nowhere near what an opposition should be polling if they expect to win. However, two recent polls suggest – and only suggest – that things have moved on since I was last in the country. YouGov give the Tories a 16 point lead Labour in their latest poll and even more significantly, the latest ICM poll gives them a 13 point lead.

Even more incredibly, the pollsters now all agree that the Tories are better placed in all the key areas of policy when it comes to trust from the electorate. Everything from the economy, to health to their leader, the electorate prefer the Tories. The headline figures can often be reactive to a bad week for one party or another, but to get winning figures across the board on all areas of policy takes time and a quantum leap in the shift of public opinion.

A change in the Political air

It is too early to say whether the Tories have taken the next massive step to forming the next government, but there was a definite change in the political air as I settled down to the Sunday papers on my return. Of course, we are still some way off an election and the recent budget will have done nothing to help Labour’s cause. However, if these polls can be repeated consistently then 2009 or 2010 could be the first serious general election this country has had since the 1970s and I wouldn’t want to the incumbent…