The Wardman Wire

Garbo is away for a fortnight and Dave Cole is writing the Politics Decoded column as a Guest Author for these two weeks. Dave blogs at davecole.org.

In this first column Dave puts forward some ideas about the situation in Kosovo and Serbia.

What to do in Kosovo and Serbia?

An unusual alignment is taking place in the Balkans at the moment; it is one that means that we must support Kosovo and Serbia going forward.

Serbia’s opposition to Kosovo’s independence is based on the idea that Kosovo is the birthplace of Serbs and an integral part of the Serbian state. The latter part is dubious - it was a unit of federation in the former Yugoslavia - and the former idea would make either central Germany or Troy the birthplace of Londoners. However, as we well know, mythologies have a surprising strength.

European identity

The undertone in Serbia’s assertion of suzerainty over Kosovo is similar to one being played out here, in the UK. This undertone follows on from the comments made by Dr Rowan Williams about sharia in the UK and ultimately comes down to a simple question: is Europe Christian?

History has tripped over Serbia from both sides

The Battle of Kosovo - way back in 1389 - saw an alliance of Serb lords being thumped by the Ottomans. The key point is that it was an alliance of Serb lords against a common enemy, and it was the first time that had happened. Serbia became a bastion of resistance to the Ottomans and, by implication, of Christian Europe against the Muslim East. Albanians, however, can make a similar claim; Skenderbeg, the national hero, successfully held the Ottomans at bay for a couple of decades.

We now see a reversal, of sorts. Serbia is being supported most strongly by Russia. While Christian, Russia seems increasingly distant from modern, liberal, democratic Europe.

Dancing with the Bear

There are many factors at work here; Russia does not want its own breakaway areas, not least Chechnya, to have any precedent in international law; it undoubtedly wants to maintain a foothold in Western Europe; it’s always fun to mess around with the ‘near abroad’; and an amount of fellow-feeling for Slavs (although this is overstated by all sides). Kosovar Albanians are mostly Muslim but, along with Albania, increasingly Westward looking, with participation in NATO and membership of the EU as a goal.

As we know, Russia is very happy to play cross-border politics and Serbia could be pressured into making life difficult for the nascent state on its doorstep; not necessarily militarily, but by slowing things down and generally hampering its emergence. Equally, a weakened Kosovo does no favours for anyone, least of all Serbia. The alliance with Russia can also be difficult in itself, as Russia might easily insist, as Serbia’s strongest ally, on actions that are not necessarily in Serbia’s best interest - particularly given the recent election of a moderate, Western-facing leader.

Conclusions and Implications

If Kosovo is to flourish, Serbia must be brought into the European fold; it must be offered a package that makes its positioning with Russia less attractive and closeness to Europe more attractive.

It also means that links must be forged on a secular, rather than co-religionist basis, across the River Ibar and with Europe.

That, in turn, requires an acceptance of Islam as something that can exist without being feared across the (existing) EU.