The Wardman Wire

There’s a storm brewing in Welsh politics around how a government will be formed from factions in the assembly.

Late on Wednesday evening, the Liberal Democrats walked away from negotiations to form a “Rainbow Coalition” with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. All bets are off again.

We are now back with a minority administration, or potentially a new election in Wales.

Background

After the Welsh election on March 3rd, the Assembly was left with a far smaller Labour representation than previously. Labour now only has 26 seats from 60.

That means that any coalition with the majority of seats must comprise:

1 - Labour working with:

a) Plaid Cymru (the Grand Coalition),
b) Lib Dems or
c) Conservatives.

2 - Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems and Conservatives working together - the so-called Rainbow Coalition.

3 - Alternatively, one party could form a minority administration.

Negotiations for Option 1a broke down on Tuesday. Option 1b has been publicly opposed by at least 2 Lib Dem Assembly Members. Option 1c would require an ideological earthquake (stranger things have happened, but I think not this time).

That leaves the Rainbow Coalition, or failing that, a minority administration by Labour or (if Labour can’t make it) Plaid Cymru.

Lib Dems sink Rainbow Coalition

The Rainbow coalition (obviously) needed consent from Plaid Cymru (PC), the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. PC, as the largest party, was heading up talks.

On Tuesday night, the Conservatives approved the agreement unanimously:

On Wednesday night, key groups of Conservatives and Lib Dems each held meetings in Llandrindod Wells to discuss the prospect of a Plaid-led coalition.

During its meeting, the management board of the Welsh Conservatives gave its unanimous support to the policy programme for a coalition government in partnership with Plaid and the Lib Dems.

Later this evening, the Lib Dems decided not to continue coalition talks. The Blamerbell Blog summed up the situation:

Two key meetings tonight, both in Llandrindod. The Conservatives’ management board are meeting in the 1930s Metropole Hotel - I’m told it’s a shoo in. Meanwhile the Lib Dem National Executive is getting together in the Media Resource Centre.

This is much more difficult to call. Even though they voted by 9-3 to suspend talks with Labour last week, a number of Lib Dem legends and Peter Black are thought to be against teaming up with Plaid and the Tories. Activists were out in numbers - thought to be at least 12 - to make their opposition known.

Then confirmed that the Lib Dems had pulled out:

UPDATE: The Lib Dems have voted to halt all talks. That means the end of the rainbow.

[Update 24/5/2007:

Blamerbell explains what happened in the Lib Dem setup, and applies a liberal (sorry) quantity of burning oil:

Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.

This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.

The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way politics is conducted in Wales has been scuppered by just one unelected officer on an internal Lib Dem council. ]

Hitting the Fan

Following the menu above, if this decision of the LibDems sticks, then we are into minority administration territory for the Labour group.

Or to put it another way, we will be back where we were before - except that the previous administration would now be kept upright by leaning on person or persons unknown. And that these persons may now be highly pissed-off antagonistic after years of opposition and weeks of failed talks.

There is not a lot for any of them to be proud of here. The electorate deliver a turnout up 5% to 43%, from 38% four years ago, and the politicians have a punch-up, nearly reach agreement, then the Lib Dems go off in a sulk.

There’s certainly not a lot to encourage more powers to be given to the Welsh Assembly.

The cachiad is about to hit the rotating cooling device. Maybe.

Coming to London soon: News of Welsh Politics

Expect this to crop up in Westminster at some stage soon, although only the Tories and Plaid Cymru may want to talk about it in front of the public.

Reactions

The Welsh Political Blog Blamerbell Briefs has posted about this three times since Wednesday morning, and attracted almost 200 comments.

He reported the Lib Dem decision at 10:30pm on Wednesday night, and had received 80 comments already. Things are bubbling nicely. Expect a large kerfuffle and cloud of dust in the Welsh blogosphere.

The story has been covered briefly by Betsan Powys.

The Lib Dems are still reporting Welsh Lib Dems enter detailed talks for Triple Crown Government.

No reaction in any of the national papers yet, except that the Times has reported (2:00am Thursday) that a “Rainbow coalition to rule in Wales” (oh dear!). Nor is there anything on the BBC Wales website.

Expect a vintage crop of mistaken first editions on Thursday morning.

My reaction is that this failure to agree is something of a tragedy.

Links

BBC - Guide to a Rainbow Coalition

Blamerbell Briefs for the gory details:

[Update 24/5/2007]

24/5/2007 : Shafted!

23/5/2007 : Will Black spoil the rainbow? UPDATE: Yes!

23/5/2007 : The return of two party politics - both Plaid Cymru

23/5/2007 : The deal Plaid left behind

22/5/2007 : On the verge of power or the brink of despair?

20/5/2007 : Sense and responsibility

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