The Wardman Wire

I promised to write further about the success (or lack of) of Independent Councillors in the English Local Elections. I summarised my thoughts as “Progress, I think, but …”. This is a brief summary article, with the main points. I will be posting a more detailed council by council analysis this weekend - subject to a demand on my time covering the whole weekend that has landed on my plate.

Iain Dale reported yesterday evening (as a footnote in an article about UKIP):

Another continuing trend is the decline of the the Independents. They now have 158 fewer councillors, with a total of 941 in the seats fought on Thursday.

I’ve been digging into the stats, and I’m not convinced that - if we take a more detailed look - this evaluation is the whole story. I will be commenting on Scotland, but only in passing. As I’ve posted before on The Wardman Wire, I’m interested in the development of local politics. The final BBC summary of the gains and losses for England is shown in the screenshot below.

I have commenting separately on Council Seats and Council control below.

Tags: boston bypass, bbeg, boston council, lincolnshire, travel, road policy, congestion, iain dale

[tags]boston bypass, bbeg, boston council, lincolnshire, travel, road policy, congestion, iain dale[/tags]

Seats

My comments:

• A pretty dramatic fall in numbers of “Others”. I’d agree with Iain there.
• I’d put a question mark over “continuing” decline. The figures were pretty flat in 2003.
• I’d question the “continuing” decline point - the total number of “Other” councillors was down by 3% (to 1142).
• I’d add a footnote that the categorisations are “questionable at the margins”. For example, Norfolk Blogger explains how some councillors standing as Independents sit with the Conservatives. I’d be interested in other accounts of this phenomenon.
• In addition, the BBC figures count as “No Overall Control” councils run by coalitions of two groups.

Councils

For me, this is more interesting. first of all, a list of the movements:

Independents gaining or holding control:

• Mansfield (Notts) - OTH hold
• Teesdale (Co Durham) - OTH hold
• Boston (Lincs) - OTH gain from NOC
• Epsom & Ewell (Surrey) - RA hold
• West Somerset (Somerset!) - OTH gain from CON

Independents losing control:

• Eden (Cumbria) OTH lose to NOC
• Torridge (South Devon) OTH lose to NOC

I am counting “Residents Association” as Independent.

• The number of councils with an Independent Majority stayed the same.
• In Eden, “others” still have half the seats.
• In Torridge “others” are jointly the largest group - with the Tories.
• In Mansfield, it looks like a new tradition building - the Independent group held it’s majority for a second time, and an Independent Mayor was also re-elected.
• Boston is interesting, to put it mildly. A pressure group, the “Boston Bypass Independents” group, won 25 from 32 seats, wiping out Labour and the LibDems. Only 5 Tories and 2 Independents survived - and another 204 votes would have wiped out the Tories too. I sure hope they have thoughts about more than bypasses. Casualties included the Mayor elect and 7 former Mayors. Turnout up 9%.

Overall, that looks to me like a mild strengthening of the Independent tradition where it is well-embedded. And Boston is “different”.